Based on the output and energy consumption data of major industrial products in Henan Province (especially those related to coal), referring to the carbon emission guidelines of the IPCC and combining with multiple linear regression analysis, a carbon emission regression model for Henan Province was constructed. Factor analysis was conducted using SPSS 27.0 software to calculate the scores of high-quality development of prefecture-level cities, and a low-carbon, green and high-quality development model was established to explore the key driving factors affecting the high-quality development of prefecture-level cities. The following results were obtained. 1) Carbon emissions in Henan Province mainly come from production, transportation, construction and daily life. The eastern, northern and central regions of Henan are the main carbon sources, while carbon sinks are mainly concentrated in forest land and cultivated land, which makes the carbon sink storage in the western and southern regions of Henan relatively high. 2) The level of low-carbon, green and high-quality development in Henan Province is on the rise, with significant spatial differences in the calculated scores. Specifically, Zhengzhou City (253), Nanyang City (53) and Luoyang City (49) rank the top three. 3) Zhoukou City has a relatively high score (21) for low-carbon, green and high-quality development, but its total carbon emissions are relatively low (4.28×106 t), and its carbon emissions per unit of energy are relatively high. It belongs to an industrial factor-driven development model. Pingdingshan City has a relatively low score (–25) in low-carbon, green and high-quality development, a high total carbon emission (1.16×107 t), and a high carbon emission per unit of population. It belongs to a development model driven by population factors. 4) To promote high-quality regional development and provide a favorable external development environment, Henan Province should optimize the industrial structure, adjust the energy consumption structure, promote balanced regional development, optimize the industrial layout and improve the ecological compensation mechanism.