This study focuses on Tongdu Town in Dongchuan District, Kunming City, and constructs a model for agricultural land use change based on human-environment interactions using an agent-based model. By utilizing census data, geographical environmental data, and field survey data, the study simulates the spatially distinct processes of agricultural labor, annual income of farming households, and agricultural land use changes in Tongdu Town from 2010 to 2015. The result shows that changes in agricultural land use are strongly correlated with labor, household income, and slope, but less so with soil fertility. Approximately 63.35% of agricultural land use changes occurred among low-income farming households, particularly the conversion of farmland to grassland — 87.60% of this specific conversion took place in low-income households. The transition from farmland to forest predominantly occurred in areas with relatively higher population densities and steeper slopes. The simulation model demonstrated excellent performance, with a spatial accuracy of 92.23%. The method developed for simulating agricultural land use changes in this study can offer valuable references for other regions, and thus provide scientific support for the implementation of ecological conservation, rural revitalization, and other related projects in China.

以昆明市东川区铜都镇为研究区, 基于多主体模型, 构建人地交互的农业土地利用变化模型。运用人口普查数据、地理环境数据和实地调研数据, 模拟2010—2015年铜都镇具有空间特征的农业劳动力、农户年收入和农业土地利用变化过程。结果表明, 农业土地利用变化与劳动力、农户收入和坡度相关性较大, 与土壤肥力相关性较小。农业土地利用变化的63.35%发生在低收入农户, 尤其是耕地转草地, 其中87.60%发生在低收入农户家庭。耕地转林地主要发生在人口密度相对较高、坡度较大的区域。模型的模拟性能优良, 空间精度为92.23%。所构建的农业土地利用变化模拟方法可为其他区域提供借鉴, 为我国生态保护、乡村振兴等工程实施提供科学支撑。