关键词: 土地利用变化, 驱动力, 空间模拟, Logistic 回归模型, 张家口市

Abstract: Taking Zhangjiakou City as the study area, using the land use data of 1989, 2000 and 2010, DEM, and social-economic statistical data, the authors analyzed the characteristics of land use change, established the driving force model based on binary logistic regression, explained the spatial driving factors that caused land use change, and simulated the spatial pattern of construction land in future. This paper provided an effective way for land use system to model and forecast future land use pattern. The result showed that arable land decreased sharply from 1989 to 2010, which mainly transited to forest land, grass land and construction land; forest land increased significantly, which mainly originated from grass land and arable land; construction land increased quickly, which mainly originated from arable land, grassland and unused land; grassland, water body and other land decreased steadily. Spatial correlation factors at 400 m scale, slope, aspect, the distance to town, the distance to road and distance to natural reservation were the important factors driving the spatial change of land use. In future, the increase of construction land will mainly occur in the Baxia region and river valleys. The downtown of Zhangjiakou City will extend to the south and west. Construction land will significantly increase around the current city and town centers in Wanquan, Huailai and Yu County.

Key words: land use change, driving forces, spatial simulation, Logistic regression model, Zhangjiakou City