关键词: 景观变化, 多时序, 水资源, 驱动力, Logistic 回归模型, 黑河中游

Abstract:

This research takes oasis in the middle reaches of Heihe Basin in northwestern inland as study area, based on land use data, basic geographic information database, DEM, soil database, climatic data and DEMSP/OLS night light database, applies multiple time-series Logistic stepwise regression model to analyze driving factors for landscape types changes during 1986–1995, 1995–2000, 2000–2010, and reveals to what extent that water resource spatial distribution constrains to cropland and construction land. Conclusions are obtained as follows. 1) No general driving factors affect cropland increasing during each time period, while elevation and human activities present general driving factors for cropland decreasing. General driving factors for construction land increasing are elevation, distance and human activities, which have different driving directions based on different time periods. 2) Pumped wells and waterways share similar influential pattern on cropland and construction land changes with influential scope from 1 km to 1.5 km. Waterways constrain more than pumped wells. 3) The elevation influential scope on cropland and construction land is beneath 3500 m, with main constraint from topographic relief effect. The research results reveal the key instructional meanings for optimizing water and land resources spatial distribution, and improving utilization of water resource in oasis area.

Key words: landscape types changes, multiple time-series, water resource, driving forces, Logistic regression model, middle reaches of Heihe Basin