关键词: 人均累计碳排放, 工业化, 城市化, 人均GDP, 碳减排

Abstract: Based on historical data on per capita carbon emissions and three socio-economic indicators (industrialization level, urbanization level, and per capita GDP) for the global total and major developed and developing countries, the relationship between carbon emissions and socio-economic development were analyzed. The results show that the process of industrialization and urbanization as well as the accumulation of social wealth, are all inevitably accompanied by large amount of carbon emissions. Therefore, reducing carbon emissions can certainly limit social and economic development. Preliminary analysis suggests that the amount of cumulative per capita emissions corresponding with the peak of industrialization should be at least 40 ton C, though it varies from country to country. For developing countries, considerable carbon emissions quota is required for further industrialization and urbanization as well as improvement of living standards. Therefore, developing countries should fight for their emission rights and financial and technical support from developed countries in the climate negotiations.

Key words: cumulative per capita emissions, industrialization, urbanization, per capita GDP, carbon emissions reduction