关键词: 土地利用变化, 大城市边缘区, 驱动力, 空间分异, 时间分异, 昌平区

Abstract: Based on the land-use maps and socio-economic statistical data, the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, together with the integration of spatial and temporal analysis were used to analyze the driving forces of Changping district, Beijing, in 1996-2004. By spatial analysis, three kinds of driving factors including natural factors, population factors and economic development factors were selected. The logistic regression concludes the following. First, the increments of non-agricultural population, the production value of the second industry class, and the distance from rivers are the main driving forces of the conversion from arable land to construction land. Second, the interchanges between different types of agricultural land are mainly influenced by natural factors, such as gradient, altitude and distance from river. Third, the city expansion and variety of industry distribution are worthy of more attention when considering interchanges of different construction land. Last, socio-economic factors play more important role in the conversion from arable land to construction land and are overwhelmed by natural factors for the opposite conversion. By temporal analysis, the population increase, economy development and relative policies have great influences on land use change through qualitative analysis. A positive logarithm correlation coefficient is acquired between the construction land areas and GDP, while a negative one between arable land areas and non-agricultural population. The policy aiming to adjustment of agriculture structure promote the conversion from arable land to garden and forest land, meanwhile, the conversion from arable, garden, country resident land to spare land is driven by the arable land withdrawal policy.

Key words: land use change, edge of metropolis, driving force, spatial variation, temporal variation, Changping district