北京大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2025, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (5): 976-986.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2025.073

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基于多主体模型的农业土地利用变化空间模拟——以昆明市东川区铜都镇为例

杨微石1,2, 戴尔阜3,4,5,†, 吴健生1,6, 张晖2, 邢赵婷7,8, 樊帆9, 王宏亮10, 关宇峰11, 陈峰12, 陈明磊13
  

  1. 1. 北京大学城市规划与设计学院城市人居环境科学与技术重点实验室, 深圳 518055 2. 深圳市自然资源和不动产评估发展研究中心, 深圳 518040 3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所生态系统网络观测与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101 4. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101 5. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049 6. 北京大学城市与环境学院, 北京 100871 7. 山西财经大学经济学院, 太原 030012 8. 深圳大学经济学院, 深圳 518061 9. 中央财经大学, 北京 100098 10. 内蒙古大学公共管理学院, 呼和浩特 010070 11. 辽宁省城乡建设规划设计院有限责任公司, 沈阳 110000 12. 深圳技术大学, 深圳 518118 13. 中铁工程设计咨询集团有限公司, 北京 100055
  • 收稿日期:2024-08-22 修回日期:2025-03-21 出版日期:2025-09-20 发布日期:2025-09-20
  • 通讯作者: 戴尔阜, E-mail: daief(at)igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中央引导地方科技发展资金(2022ZY0206)和自治区高等学校碳达峰碳中和研究专项(STZX202220)资助

Spatial Simulation of Agricultural Land Use Change Based on Agent-Based Model: A Case Study of Tongdu Town, Dongchuan District in Kunming City

YANG Weishi1,2, DAI Erfu3,4,5,†, WU Jiansheng1,6, ZHANG Hui2, XING Zhaoting7,8, FAN Fan9, WANG Hongliang10, GUAN Yufeng11, CHEN Feng12, CHEN Minglei13
  

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Urban Human Settlements Science and Technology, School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055 2. Shenzhen Center for Evaluation and Development of Natural Resources and Real Estate, Shenzhen 518040 3. Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101 4. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101 5. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 6. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871 7. School of Economics, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030012 8. School of Economics, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518061 9. Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100098 10. School of Public Administration, University of Inner Mongolia, Hohhot 010070 11. Liaoning Urban and Rural Construction Planning and Design Institute Co., Ltd., Shenyang 110000 12. Shenzhen University of Technology, Shenzhen 518118 13. China Railway Engineering Design and Consulting Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100055
  • Received:2024-08-22 Revised:2025-03-21 Online:2025-09-20 Published:2025-09-20
  • Contact: DAI Erfu, E-mail: daief(at)igsnrr.ac.cn

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摘要：

以昆明市东川区铜都镇为研究区, 基于多主体模型, 构建人地交互的农业土地利用变化模型。运用人口普查数据、地理环境数据和实地调研数据, 模拟2010—2015年铜都镇具有空间特征的农业劳动力、农户年收入和农业土地利用变化过程。结果表明, 农业土地利用变化与劳动力、农户收入和坡度相关性较大, 与土壤肥力相关性较小。农业土地利用变化的63.35%发生在低收入农户, 尤其是耕地转草地, 其中87.60%发生在低收入农户家庭。耕地转林地主要发生在人口密度相对较高、坡度较大的区域。模型的模拟性能优良, 空间精度为92.23%。所构建的农业土地利用变化模拟方法可为其他区域提供借鉴, 为我国生态保护、乡村振兴等工程实施提供科学支撑。

关键词: 多主体模型, 农业土地利用模拟, 铜都镇, 劳动力

Abstract:

This study focuses on Tongdu Town in Dongchuan District, Kunming City, and constructs a model for agricultural land use change based on human-environment interactions using an agent-based model. By utilizing census data, geographical environmental data, and field survey data, the study simulates the spatially distinct processes of agricultural labor, annual income of farming households, and agricultural land use changes in Tongdu Town from 2010 to 2015. The result shows that changes in agricultural land use are strongly correlated with labor, household income, and slope, but less so with soil fertility. Approximately 63.35% of agricultural land use changes occurred among low-income farming households, particularly the conversion of farmland to grassland — 87.60% of this specific conversion took place in low-income households. The transition from farmland to forest predominantly occurred in areas with relatively higher population densities and steeper slopes. The simulation model demonstrated excellent performance, with a spatial accuracy of 92.23%. The method developed for simulating agricultural land use changes in this study can offer valuable references for other regions, and thus provide scientific support for the implementation of ecological conservation, rural revitalization, and other related projects in China.

Key words: agent-based model, agricultural land use simulation, Tongdu Town, labor

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