Integrated PCA-BN Approach for Identifying the Water Quality Response Patterns for Lakes in Yunnan Plateau

doi:10.13209/j.0479-8023.2017.113

Abstract

Abstract:

An integrated approach of principle components analysis (PCA) and Bayesian network (BN) for identify- ing the response pattern of different clusters were developed to understand sensitive relationships of water quality in lakes of Yunnan Plateau. The model includes four steps: data preconditioning, lakes clustering with PCA, Bayesian network learning and lake water quality response modeling. The results demonstrate that the 26 lakes can be clustered into two groups; the Chl a concentration responds more significantly to Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP) in the first group, mainly resulting from much higher watershed disturbances; the Dissolved Oxygen (DO) in the first group with higher water temperature is close to saturation and have little change with Chl a increasing, while the second group is not; and there is good consistency on the relationship between Transpa-rency (SD)and Chl a in both groups.

Key words: plateau lakes, water quality, clustering, response pattern, principle components analysis, Bayesian network

摘要：

为探究湖泊群水质变量的响应模式, 构建适用于监测数据匮乏的湖泊群聚类和响应模式识别方法体系(PCA-BN), 包括4个步骤: 数据预处理、PCA降维与湖泊聚类、贝叶斯网络构建及参数学习、湖泊响应关系模拟。以云南高原湖泊群为例开展研究, 结果表明: 所研究的26个湖泊可分为两类; 由于第一类湖泊受到的人为干扰更严重, 因而叶绿素a对总氮和总磷的响应比第二类湖泊更敏感; 第一类湖泊表层水温高, 溶解氧趋近饱和, 随叶绿素a变化不显著, 第二类湖泊溶解氧随叶绿素a升高而显著升高; 两类湖泊的透明度与叶绿素a的关系一致。

关键词: 湖泊群, 水质, 聚类, 响应模式, 主成分分析, 贝叶斯网络

Qingsong JIANG, Zhongyao LIANG, Lei ZHAO, Yuzhao LI, Sifeng WU, Yong LIU. Integrated PCA-BN Approach for Identifying the Water Quality Response Patterns for Lakes in Yunnan Plateau[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2017, 53(5): 948-956.

蒋青松, 梁中耀, 赵磊, 李玉照, 吴思枫, 刘永. 云南高原湖泊群的统计学聚类识别及水质响应模式研究[J]. 北京大学学报自然科学版, 2017, 53(5): 948-956.

Figures/Tables 8

References 47

[1]	孟伟, 苏一兵, 郑丙辉. 中国流域水污染现状与控制策略的探讨. 中国水利水电科学研究院学报, 2004, 2(4): 242-246
[2]	Conley D J, Paerl H W, Howarth R W, et al.Controlling eutrophication: nitrogen and phosphorus. Science, 2009, 323: 1014-1015
[3]	Baresel C, Destouni G.Uncertainty-accounting envir-onmental policy and management of water systems. Environmental Science & Technology, 2007, 41(10): 3653-3659
[4]	刘永, 邹锐, 郭怀成, 等. 智能流域管理研究.北京: 科学出版社, 2012
[5]	Swaney D P, Scavia D, Howarth R W, et al.Estuarine classification and response to nitrogen loading: insights from simple ecological models. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2008, 77(2): 253-263
[6]	Trebitzey A S, Brazner J C, Cotter A M, et al.Water quality in Great Lakes coastal wetlands: basin-wide patterns and responses to an anthropogenic distur-bance gradient. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2007, 33(1): 67-85
[7]	吴丰昌, 孟伟, 宋永会, 等. 中国湖泊水环境基准的研究进展. 环境科学学报, 2008, 28(12): 2385-2393
[8]	Liu Y, Wang Y L, Sheng H, et al.Quantitative evaluation of lake eutrophication responses under alternative water diversion scenarios: a water quality modeling based statistical analysis approach. Science of the Total Environment, 2013, 468(7): 219-227
[9]	Zou R, Zhang X L, Liu Y, et al.Uncertainty-based analysis on water quality response to water diversions for Lake Chenghai: a multiple-pattern inverse model-ing approach. Journal of Hydrology, 2014, 514: 1-14
[10]	张军莉, 赵磊, 聂菊芬. 云南高原小湖泊水质空间分布特征研究. 环境科学导刊, 2015(2): 26-34
[11]	Omernik J M.Map Supplement: ecoregions of the Conterminous United States. Annals of the Associa-tion of American Geographers, 1987, 77(1): 118-125
[12]	Freeman A M, Lamon Ⅲ E C, Stow C A. Nutrient criteria for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs: a Bayesian TREED model approach. Ecological Modelling, 2009, 220(5): 630-639
[13]	Lamon Ⅲ E C, Malve O, Pietiläinen O P. Lake classification to enhance prediction of eutrophication endpoints in Finnish lakes. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2008, 23(7): 938-947
[14]	Hemsley F B, Wright J F, Sutcliffe D W, et al.Classification of the biological quality of rivers in England and Wales // Assessing the biological quality of fresh waters: RIVPACS and other techniques. Proceedings of an International Workshop held in Oxford, UK, on 16-18 September 1997. Freshwater Biological Association (FBA), 2000: 55-69
[15]	Heiskary S A, Wilson C B, Larsen D P.Analysis of regional patterns in lake water quality: using ecore-gions for lake management in Minnesota. Lake & Reservoir Management, 1987, 3(1): 337-344
[16]	Lewis W M.A revised classification of lakes based on mixing. Canadian Journal of Fisheries & Aquatic Sciences, 2011, 40(10): 1779-1787
[17]	Naumann E.Några synpunkter angående limnoplank-tons ökologi med särskild hänsyn till fytoplankton. Svensk Botanisk Tidskrift, 1919, 13(6): 129-163
[18]	Kalff J.Limnology: inland water ecosystems. New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 2002
[19]	Akbar T A, Hassan Q K, Achari G.A methodology for clustering lakes in Alberta on the basis of water quality parameters. Clean-Soilair Water, 2011, 39(10): 916-924
[20]	Abdi H, Williams L J.Principal component analysis. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Computational Statis- tics, 2010, 2(4): 433-459
[21]	Ouyang Y, Nkedi-Kizza P, Wu Q T, et al.Assessment of seasonal variations in surface water quality. Water Research, 2006, 40(20): 3800-3810
[22]	曹金玲, 席北斗, 许其功, 等. 地理气候及湖盆形态对我国湖泊营养状态的影响. 环境科学学报, 2012, 32(6): 1512-1519
[23]	刘总堂, 李春海, 章钢娅. 运用主成分分析法研究云南湖库水体中重金属分布. 环境科学研究, 2010, 23(4): 459-466
[24]	Yang Y H, Zhou F, Guo H C, et al.Analysis of spatial and temporal water pollution patterns in Lake Dianchi using multivariate statistical methods. Environmental Monitoring & Assessment, 2010, 170: 407-416
[25]	Olsen R L, Chappell R W, Loftis J C.Water quality sample collection, data treatment and results presen-tation for principal components analysis — literature review and Illinois River watershed case study. Water Research, 2012, 46(9): 3110-3122
[26]	Rigosi A, Hanson P, Hamilton D P, et al.Determining the probability of cyanobacterial blooms: the appli-cation of Bayesian networks in multiple lake systems. Ecological Applications, 2015, 25(1): 186-199
[27]	Loiselle S A, Azza N, Cózar A, et al.Variability in factors causing light attenuation in Lake Victoria. Freshwater Biology, 2008, 53(3): 535-545
[28]	Astel A, Tsakovski S, Barbieri P, et al.Comparison of self-organizing maps classification approach with cluster and principal components analysis for large environmental data sets. Water Research, 2007, 41(19): 4566-4578
[29]	Tsamardinos I, Brown L E, Aliferis C F.The max-min hill-climbing Bayesian network structure learning algorithm. Machine Learning, 2006, 65(1): 31-78
[30]	Nielsen T D, Jensen F V.Bayesian networks and decision graphs. New York: Springer Science & Business Media, 2007
[31]	Hart B T, Pollino C A, Hart B T, et al.Bayesian modelling for risk-based environmental water alloca-tion. National Water Commission, 2009
[32]	Xu H, Mccarthy M J, Zhu G, et al.Controlling harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a hyper-eutrophic lake (Lake Taihu, China): the need for a dual nutrient (N & P) management strategy. Water Research, 2011, 45(5): 1973-1983
[33]	Lee H S, Lee J H W. Continuous monitoring of short term dissolved oxygen and algal dynamics. Water Research, 1995, 29(29): 2789-2796
[34]	Gabriels W, Goethals P L M, Dedecker A P, et al. analysis of macrobenthic communities in Flanders, Belgium, using a stepwise input variable selection procedure with artificial neural networks. Aquatic Ecology, 2007, 41(3): 427-441
[35]	王明翠, 刘雪芹, 张建辉. 湖泊富营养化评价方法及分级标准. 中国环境监测, 2002, 18(5): 47-49
[36]	Ji Z G.Hydrodynamics and water quality: modeling rivers, lakes, and estuaries. Wiley-Interscience, 2008
[37]	McQueen D J, Lean D R S. Influence of water temperature and nitrogen to phosphorus ratios on the dominance of blue-green algae in Lake St. George, Ontario. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and aquatic Sciences, 1987, 44(3): 598-604
[38]	Kling G W.Comparative transparency, depth of mixing, and stability of stratification in lakes of Cameroon, Westafrica. Limnology & Oceanography, 1988, 33(1): 27-40
[39]	Gorham E, Boyce F M.Influence of lake surface area and depth upon thermal stratification and the Depth of the summer thermocline. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 1989, 15(2): 233-245
[40]	孙玉莲, 赵永涛, 曹伟超, 等. 山区人口分布与环境要素关系的定量分析. 安徽农业科学, 2011, 39(19): 11705-11707
[41]	宋长青, 杨桂山, 冷疏影. 湖泊及流域科学研究进展与展望. 湖泊科学, 2002, 14(4): 3-14
[42]	Liu Wenzhi, Zhang Quanfa, Liu Guihua.Effects of watershed land use and lake morphometry on the trophic state of Chinese lakes: implications for eutrophication control. Clean —Soil, Air, Water, 2011, 39(1): 35-42
[43]	秦伯强, 高光, 朱广伟, 等. 湖泊富营养化及其生态系统响应. 科学通报, 2013(10): 855-864
[44]	Zang C, Huang S, Wu M, et al.Comparison of rela-tionships between pH, dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll a for aquaculture and non-aquaculture waters. Water, Air,& Soil Pollution, 2011, 219: 157-174
[45]	李蒙, 谢国清, 戴丛蕊, 等. 滇池外海水体叶绿素 a 与水质因子关系研究. 云南地理环境研究, 2009, 21(2): 102-106
[46]	Liu W, Li S, Bu H, et al.Eutrophication in the Yunnan Plateau lakes: the influence of lake morphology, watershed land use, and socioeconomic factors. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2012, 19(3): 858-870
[47]	Liu W, Zhang Q, Liu G.Lake eutrophication asso-ciated with geographic location, lake morphology and climate in China. Hydrobiologia, 2010, 644(1): 289-299

统计量	WT/ºC	DO/(mg · L^-1)	SD/m	TN/(mg · L^-1)	TP/(mg · L^-1)	Chl a/(mg · L^-1)	COD_Mn/(mg · L^-1)
平均值	21.39	7.155	2.569	0.544	0.039	0.008	4.626
标准差	3.61	2.020	2.726	0.532	0.042	0.009	2.668
变异系数	0.17	0.282	1.061	0.978	1.070	1.147	0.577
最小值	14.57	2.033	0.367	0.050	0.005	0.0004	0.900
最大值	28.67	13.400	11.933	1.998	0.167	0.035	11.600

统计量	WT/ºC	DO/(mg · L^-1)	SD/m	TN/(mg · L^-1)	TP/(mg · L^-1)	Chl a/(mg · L^-1)	COD_Mn/(mg · L^-1)
平均值	21.39	7.155	2.569	0.544	0.039	0.008	4.626
标准差	3.61	2.020	2.726	0.532	0.042	0.009	2.668
变异系数	0.17	0.282	1.061	0.978	1.070	1.147	0.577
最小值	14.57	2.033	0.367	0.050	0.005	0.0004	0.900
最大值	28.67	13.400	11.933	1.998	0.167	0.035	11.600

主成分载荷表	主成分1	主成分2
DO		0.915
SD	0.438
TN	-0.438
TP	-0.454	-0.237
Chl a	-0.431	0.225
COD_Mn	-0.464	-0.207
方差贡献率	0.587	0.181
累积方差贡献率	0.587	0.768

主成分载荷表	主成分1	主成分2
DO		0.915
SD	0.438
TN	-0.438
TP	-0.454	-0.237
Chl a	-0.431	0.225
COD_Mn	-0.464	-0.207
方差贡献率	0.587	0.181
累积方差贡献率	0.587	0.768

类别	R	特征	湖泊聚类结果
一	>1	人为干扰影响较大	滇池、阳宗海、洱海、抚仙湖、泸沽湖、摆龙湖、三角海、大屯海、海西海、普者黑、清水海、茈碧湖、月湖、草海湿地、长桥海
二	<1	人为干扰影响较小	碧塔海、海峰湿地、剑湖、拉市海、纳帕海、青海湖、蜀都湖、天池、西湖、长湖