In order to clarify the relationship between land and water resources and environmental capacity in Hebei Province, and provide a scientific basis for the coordinated development of land and water resources, taking Hebei Province as an example, this study used the “provincial hectare” ecological footprint model to correct the equilibrium and yield factors of land and water resources, and analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution of the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity from 2006 to 2021. The coupling coordination model was used to analyze the coupling coordination of ecological carrying capacity of land and water resources. The partial least squares method was employed for the analysis of the driving factors of the coupling coordination of ecological carrying capacity. The results show that land resources in Hebei Province are in ecological deficit, and the per capita ecological footprint value of land resources has an upward trend, with a growth rate of 42.86%. The per capita ecological carrying capacity has a downward trend, with a decline rate of 41.94%. Water resources are also in ecological deficit, and both the per capita ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity show upward trends, with growth rates of 36.89% and 131.03% respectively. The coupling coordination degree of ecological carrying capacity of land and water resources in Hebei Province is mainly between moderate dissonance and intermediate coordination. The mean value of coupling coordination of ecological carrying capacity in each city is above 0.42, and Baoding has the highest mean value (0.62). The driving factors are mainly reflected in the 3 dimensions of land resources, water resources and society, in which indicators such as per unit area standard grain yield, per capita water resources and per capita precipitation have a more significant impact on the degree of coupling coordination between the province and individual cities.

为了明确河北省水土资源与环境容量的关系, 为水土资源协调发展提供科学依据, 以河北省为例, 基于“省公顷”生态足迹模型, 修正水土资源均衡因子和产量因子, 分析2006—2021年水土资源生态足迹和生态承载力的时空演变趋势。通过耦合协调模型, 分析水土资源生态承载力耦合协调性, 采用偏最小二乘法, 分析影响水土资源生态承载力耦合协调度的因素。结果表明, 河北省土地资源呈生态亏损状态, 人均土地资源生态足迹呈上升趋势, 上升率为42.86%, 而人均生态承载力呈下降趋势, 下降率为41.94%。水资源也呈生态亏损状态, 人均水资源生态足迹和生态承载力均呈上升趋势, 上升率分别为36.89%和131.03%。全省水土资源生态承载力耦合协调度集中在中度失调与中级协调之间, 各市水土资源生态承载力耦合协调度均值在0.42以上, 保定市的耦合协调均值最高(0.62)。驱动因素主要体现在土地资源、水资源和社会3个维度, 其中单位标准面积粮食产量、人均水资源量和人均降水量等指标对全省以及各市的耦合协调度影响较大。