Abstract:

Based on the county-level floating population data of 2010 sixth national population census, the regional differences of influence of migration distance of floating population on urbanization are focused and analyzed, with the methods of spatial autocorrelation and geographically weighted regression. The results show that: 1) the average rate of short-distance floating population is the largest, followed by the medium-distance floating population, and the rate of long-distance floating population is the least. The migration distance of floating population varies with districts. The rate of short-distance floating population is larger in the central and northeast of China, with rate of medium-distance floating population larger in the minority nationality regions and border regions of west part of China and rate of long-distance floating population larger in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Jing-Jin-Ji Area and northwest of China. 2) There is a big difference between influence of short-distance floating, medium-distance floating and long-distance floating on urbanization, and it varies with regions. The rate of short-distance floating population is negative relevant with urbanization, and the highly negative relevant areas are mostly located in the mountainous area and provincial boundary area. The rate of medium-distance floating population is positive relevant with urbanization, and the highly positive relevant areas are mainly located in the border area between China’s second and third terrain ladder as well as the southeast hilly region. The areas that the rate of long-distance floating population is negative relevant with urbanization are mainly located in the minority nationality regions, remote and border regions, and in the rest areas the rate of long-distance floating population is positive relevant with urbanization. 3) The areas with higher rate of short-distance floating population match the areas where the rate of short-distance floating population have a strong influence on urbanization. The high-low clustered areas of the rate of medium-distance floating population form the center-periphery structure with the areas where the rate of medium-distance floating population strongly influences urbanization. The areas with higher rate of long-distance floating population mismatch with the areas where the rate of long-distance floating population highly influences urbanization.

Key words: floating population, migration distance, urbanization, regional differences, geographically weighted regression

摘要：

以 2010 年第六次全国人口普查全国区县单元流动人口数据为基础, 运用GIS空间自相关分析和地理加权回归分析方法, 探究流动人口迁移距离特征与其城镇化影响的区域差异, 结果如下。1 全国各区县平均近程流动比重最大, 中程次之, 远程最小。各地区流动人口迁移距离特征区域差异明显, 中部地区和东北地区以近程流动为主, 西部少数民族地区和内蒙古边境地区以中程流动为主, 长三角、珠三角、京津冀以及西北地区以远程流动为主。2 近程、中程、远程人口流动对城镇化影响不同, 且存在很大的区域差异。近程流动比重与城镇化水平负相关, 高度负相关区域多位于山地丘陵地区和省界地区; 中程流动比重与城镇化水平正相关, 高度正相关地区主要位于中国二、三级阶梯分界线地区以及东南丘陵地区; 远程流动比重与城镇化水平负相关的区域主要位于少数民族地区、边远地区或省界地区, 其他地区远程流动比重与城镇化水平正相关。3 近程流动比重高值区与其城镇化影响高值区吻合, 中程流动比重高-低集聚区与其城镇化影响高值区存在“中心-外围”结构, 远程流动比重高值区与其城镇化影响高值区空间错位。

关键词: 流动人口, 迁移距离, 城镇化, 区域差异, 地理加权回归