Abstract: Through case study with participant observation, semi-structured interview, questionnaire survey and multi-stakeholder interview, pastoralists’ perception and adaptive actions to climate change were described and recorded in the steppe region of Hexigten Banner, Inner Mongolia. Pastoralists’ perception was compared with meteorological data and the disasters’ record. The factors impacting their adaptive capacity were analyzed. The main change of climate according to pastoralists’ perception was aggravated drought since year 2000, which was described as higher temperature, less precipitation, and the change of wind, cloud and fog. About the temperature, precipitation and the meteorological disaster, pastoralists’ perception was coincident with meteorological data and the disasters’ record. However, since the impacts to eco-systems and livestock husbandry of climate change were more concerned, besides the amount of precipitation, pastoralists stated detailed changes: the frequency, spatial and temporal heterogeneity, fluctuations and cumulative effect of rainfall, and the aggregate effect of precipitation and temperature. Drought has decreased forage production and surface water, under these pressures pastoralists’ adaptive actions were to increase livestock mobility, clarify resources users and purchase forage and grain. The pastoralists were able to cope with climate change, common property rights arrangement; nested management of monitoring and sanction; external support such as projects from the government, market and credit played the key role.

Key words: arid and semi-arid area, climate change, local pastoralist, perception, adaptive actions

摘要： 通过在内蒙古克什克腾旗牧区的案例研究, 采用参与式观察、半结构式访谈、问卷调查以及多相关利益方调查相结合的方法, 描述牧民对于气候变化的感知并辅以气象数据分析, 记录其感知下的应对行为, 探讨影响其适应能力的因素。研究结果表明: 对气候变化, 牧民的感知主要为自2000年起干旱加剧, 具体表现是降水减少和气温升高以及云、风、雾等气象变化。在气温、降水和气象灾害方面, 牧民的感知与气象数据以及统计资料一致。由于牧民更关注气候变化对于生态以及畜牧业产生的影响, 除降水量外, 他们还关注降水的频率和空间异质性, 降水量的年际波动和累积效应以及气温和降水的综合影响。对于干旱加剧导致的地表水减少和天然牧草产草量下降, 牧民采取的应对行为包括恢复牧户和牲畜的移动、加强资源使用的排他性和从外界购买饲草料。气候变化下牧民能够采取上述应对行动并有一定作用。当地放牧场的共有产权安排形式、有效的自下而上的监督和自上而下的制裁以及外界力量如政府项目、市场和信贷的支持起到关键作用。

关键词: 干旱半干旱区, 气候变化, 牧民, 感知, 应对行为