Abstract:

Taking Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Rail as an example, this paper makes an analysis about the impact of city scale, distance, departure frequency upon the intensity of passager flow between cities, and decomposes the Time Saving effect of high-speed rail and departure frequency effect. A multiple liner regression model is constructed to analyze whether both effects are significant, under the control of the scale variable. The results show that Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Rail makes a readjustment of the passager flow between cities, leading to an decreasing impact of the scale variable upon the urban spatial interaction; the influence of the distance variable is significant in 2014, of which the absolute coefficient decrease, and which means passager flow is less sensitive to the spatial distance, leading to the increase of passager flow of the long-distance city-pairs. Therefore, the time saving effect of high-speed rail makes the distance less important for urban spatial interaction. The coefficient of the departure frequency variable is also significant in 2014, resulting from high-speed rail increasing the total departure frequency, and exalting the intensity of medium, medium-high departure frequency city-pairs, which means that the effect of departure frequency makes the departure frequency more important for urban spatial interaction.

Key words: Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail, city-pair, scale-distance-departrue frequency, spatial interaction

摘要：

以京沪高铁为例, 分析城市规模、距离、发车频次对京沪沿线城市间客流强度的影响, 辨析高铁的时间压缩效应及频次效应; 同时构建多元线性回归模型, 控制城市规模变量, 分析时间压缩效应及频次效应对城市空间相互作用的影响是否显著, 得到如下结论: 1) 京沪高铁开通导致客流在不同规模城市间分流, 使得城市规模对沿线城市间空间相互作用影响减弱; 2) 2014 年高铁空间距离变量对客流影响显著, 且比 2010 年的弹性系数绝对值小, 客流对空间距离更加不敏感, 引起长距离“城市对”的客流比重及客流强度上升, 即高铁带来的时间压缩效应使得空间距离对沿线城市空间相互作用的影响减弱; 3) 2014 年高铁频次变量对客流强度的影响显著, 高铁带来城市间发车总频次的增加, 提升了中、中高频次“城市对”客流强度, 即高铁的频次效应使得频次对沿线城市空间相互作用的影响增强。

关键词: 京沪高铁, 城市对, 规模-距离-频次, 空间相互作用