北京大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2026, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (3): 527-537.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2026.002

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基于场级尺度的中国东南沿海海上风电潜力评价

许石炜1,2, 张川1,2,†   

  1. 1. 北京大学地球与空间科学学院, 北京 100871 2. 北京大学能源研究院, 北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2025-03-10 修回日期:2025-04-14 出版日期:2026-05-20 发布日期:2026-05-20
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2023YFF0613900)和中国气象局气候变化主题研究(QBZ202409)资助

Assessment of Offshore Wind Power Potential in Southeastern Coastal China at the Farm-Scale

XU Shiwei1,2, ZHANG Chuan1,2,†   

  1. 1. School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871 2. Institute of Energy, Peking University, Beijing 100871
  • Received:2025-03-10 Revised:2025-04-14 Online:2026-05-20 Published:2026-05-20

摘要:

为准确地评估中国东南沿海省市海上风电开发潜力, 采用场级尺度分析方法, 结合历史风速数据、海洋地理信息及风机布局优化策略, 建立一种包含风速、浪高、水深和保护区限制的海上风电装机适宜性评估框架, 提出标准化风机间距布局方案, 同时运用高斯尾流模型量化风电场级的尾流效应。结果表明, 从资源潜力角度出发, 在不考虑电力时序输出、弃风率、电网接纳能力或调度限制等实际因素的情况下, 东南沿海五省市的海上风电潜力可满足区域77%的用电需求。同时, 优化风机行数和间距配置可以平衡尾流损耗和整体发电潜力, 深远海浮式风电与大容量机组的应用能够有效地提升资源利用率。研究结果对合理规划区域风电开发、优化建设决策和提供区域能源结构低碳化转型方案具有积极意义。

关键词: 东南沿海, 海上风电, 资源潜力, 场级尺度

Abstract:

To accurately assess the offshore wind power development potential in the southeastern coastal provinces of China, this study employs a farm-scale analytical approach, combining historical wind speed data, marine geographical information, and wind turbine layout optimization strategies. A suitability evaluation framework is established, incorporating factors such as wind speed, wave height, water depth, and protected area restrictions, along with a standardized wind turbine spacing layout scheme. Additionally, a Gaussian wake model is used to quantify wake effects at the wind farm level. The results indicate that the offshore wind potential in the five southeastern provinces can meet 77% of the regional electricity demand. Optimizing wind turbine row configurations and spacing can balance wake losses and overall power generation potential. The application of deep-sea floating wind turbines and large-capacity turbines will significantly improve resource utilization. These findings are of great significance for rational planning of regional wind power development and the optimization of construction decisions, providing a pathway for the low-carbon transformation of regional energy structures.

Key words: southeastern coastal China, offshore wind power, resource potential, farm-scale