关键词: 玉米产量, 变化趋势, 波动特征, LMDI 模型, 经验模态分解模型

Abstract: Based on logarithmic mean weigh division index method (LMDI), empirical mode decomposition method (EMD) and variance decomposition model (VDM), the evolutive trend and fluctuation characteristics of corn production in China during 1978–2012 was analyzed. The contribution difference to corn output fluctuation during eight grain production regions was revealed. The following results were obtained. Corn output increased by 1.50×10⁸ ton from 1978 to 2012, and the corn production advantage in Huang-Huai-Hai region and Northeast Region in China was further highlighted. It was estimated that the accumulated contribution values of corn sowing area and corn yield per hectare at national scale were 0.79×10⁸ ton and 0.71×10⁸ ton respectively, and corn sowing area was the major contributor to the increment of corn output. The residual trend of corn output showed a trend of gradual increase and the grain output has 3-year periodic oscillation. During the eight grain production regions in China, Huang-Huai-Hai Region played the prominent role in the total fluctuation, following by the Northeast Region and Loess Plateau Region. The self-fluctuations in the three regions and their positively mutual affect were the main factors of China’s corn output fluctuation, including Huang-Huai-Hai Region, Northeast Region and Loess Plateau Region in China. For the high contribution ratio and drastic change, more attention should be paid to Huang-Huai-Hai Region and Northeast Region in China.

Key words: corn output, evolutive trend, fluctuation characteristics, logarithmic mean weigh division index method, empirical mode decomposition