关键词: 分布式水文模型, 情景分析, 不确定性, 土地利用变化, 水资源, 气候变化

Abstract: The authors introduce the development of relative researches on land use hydrological effects, and explore the sources of uncertainty of current studies. Generally, current researches, in the aspect of contents, focus on more kinds of land use forms in variable scales. Furthermore, they progress to analyze the impacts of land use allocation and distinguish the impacts between land use and climate change. As for the methods, physical-based distributed hydrological model and scenario analysis are widely used in current researches. Meanwhile, the land use/cover change models such as CA and CLUEs are employed by more and more researches. On the trajectory to modeling the complexity of linkage between land use and water resource, current researches are confronted with an increasing uncertainty so that it would be critical to quantify the uncertainty. What’s more, the potential contradiction between the objectives of land use planning and water resources management and the feedback of water resources to land use changes in the long run are worthy to be taken into consideration.

Key words: climate change, physical-based distributed hydrological model, scenario analysis, uncertainty, land use changes, water resources