关键词: 累计碳排放, 人均累计排放, 减排, 变率分析

Abstract: Human induced CO₂ emissions have experienced three important periods: 1) 1850-2008, the period since the second industrial revolution; 2) 1950-2008, the rapid economy development period after the Second World War; and 3)1990-2008, the carbon reduction period highlighted by a sign of the “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”. Using data of carbon emissions and population of the world from 1850 to 2008, the authors calculated historical cumulative carbon emissions and the cumulative per capita carbon emissions for the global, developed and developing countries, and analyzed characteristics of carbon emissions for the three periods for China and other major countries. The cumulative global emissions in the past 160 years were 345 PgC (1 PgC = 1015 g of carbon) ; both of the total and per capita carbon emissions in the developed countries were much higher than those in the developing countries for all the three periods. In 1850-2008, the total cumulative emission of the former was 2. 9 times higher than the latter (250 vs. 87 PgC) and the capita value was 11. 2 times higher (257 vs. 23 ton C/ cap) ; in 1950-2008, 2. 3 times higher (193 vs. 85 PgC) and 7. 7 times higher (169 vs. 22 ton C/cap) , respectively; and in 1990-2008, 1.9 times higher (75 vs. 54 PgC) and 5. 3 times higher (58 vs. 11 ton C/ cap). Although the difference in the historical emissions between the developed and developing countries is getting smaller towards the present, both total and per capita emissions of the former are still much higher than the latter, indicating that developed countries should take responsible for the enhanced atmospheric CO2 rising. The cumulative total and per capita emissions of China during the three periods were 31 PgC and 29 ton C/cap, 31 PgC and 28 ton C/cap, and 21 PgC and 16 ton C/cap, respectively. Since the reform and opening up (1980-2008), both the total and per capita emissions of China have experienced rapid growth, with the average annual increase of 0.05 PgC and 0.04 ton C/cap, respectively. These data suggest that China is losing its historical advantage with low per capita emissions, and therefore should take the policies of energy saving and carbon reduction for its sustainable development.

Key words: carbon emissions, cumulative per capita emissions, carbon emissions reduction, change rate analysis