北京大学学报(自然科学版)

泥石流灾害多元信息耦合预警系统建设及其应用

丛威青1,潘懋1,任群智2,李仁锋2,李铁锋3   

  1. 1北京大学地球与空间科学学院, 北京, 100871;2辽宁省冶金地质勘查局地质勘查研究院, 鞍山, 114002;3中国地质环境监测院, 北京, 100081
  • 收稿日期:2005-09-13 出版日期:2006-07-20 发布日期:2006-07-20

Building and Application of the Debris Flow Warning System Based on Multi-Information

CONG Weiqing1, PAN Mao1, REN Qunzhi2, LI Renfeng2, LI Tiefeng3   

  1. 1School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871; 2Geologic Exploration Institute, Liaoning Bureau of Geology and Mineral Exploration for Metallurgy, Anshan, 114002; 3China Institute of Geo Environment Monitoring, Beijing, 100081
  • Received:2005-09-13 Online:2006-07-20 Published:2006-07-20

摘要: 将Logistic回归模型和前期有效降雨量引入到地质灾害预警领域,结合泥石流灾害危险性评价,形成了一整套较完善的泥石流灾害多元信息耦合预警体系,并基于MAPGIS平台经二次开发建立了泥石流灾害预警系统。在综合分析雨量和地质环境因素的基础上,提出了危险等级自动划分方法,从而实现了对泥石流等降雨诱发型地质灾害的定量化时空自动预报。基于该系统,在辽宁省鞍山市开展了泥石流灾害预警预报工作。

关键词: 泥石流, 多元信息, 预警系统, Logistic回归, 前期有效降雨量

Abstract: A multidisciplinary approach is adopted in order to build the warning system of rainfall-triggered debris flows. The prediction is always the emphasis of research on debris flows. But because of the complex relationship between rainfall and debris flows there is not any universal method to do research on it. An approach based on logistic regression and antecedent effective rainfall is promoted. A warning system has been built combining with hazard zonation. And a computer system has been developed based on the platform of software MAPGIS. Depending on the integrated analysis of rainfall and geologic environmental factors, an automated partition method is promoted. Then the quantified automated prediction of rainfall-triggered debris flows is achieved. The system has been applied in Anshan, Liaoning Province.

Key words: debris flows, multi-information, warning system, logistic regression, antecedent effective rainfall

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