北京大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2025, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (4): 821-832.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2025.017

上一篇    

海运碳排放的影响因素研究进展

赵鹏军1,2,†, 孔维娅1, 康婷婷1,†, 许佳时1, 杨艺1   

  1. 1. 北京大学深圳研究生院城市规划与设计学院, 深圳 518055 2. 北京大学城市与环境学院, 北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2024-05-07 修回日期:2024-06-27 出版日期:2025-07-20 发布日期:2025-07-20
  • 通讯作者: 赵鹏军, E-mail: pengjun.zhao(at)pku.edu.cn, 康婷婷, E-mail: kangtt(at)pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(42525101, 42130402)和深圳市科技计划(JCYJ20220818100810024)资助

Research Progress in Influencing Factors of Shipping Carbon Emissions

ZHAO Pengjun1,2,†, KONG Weiya1, KANG Tingting1,†, XU Jiashi1, YANG Yi1   

  1. 1. School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055 2. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871
  • Received:2024-05-07 Revised:2024-06-27 Online:2025-07-20 Published:2025-07-20
  • Contact: ZHAO Pengjun, E-mail: pengjun.zhao(at)pku.edu.cn, KANG Tingting, E-mail: kangtt(at)pku.edu.cn

摘要:

从微观和宏观两个层次, 对海运碳排放影响因素的研究进行全面系统的梳理, 总结出三大微观因素和三大宏观因素及其相互作用的七大效应。微观因素直接作用于船舶, 包括船舶技术因素、船队运营因素和航运物理因素; 宏观因素通过市场调控影响微观部分, 间接作用于海运碳排放, 包括国际治理因素、贸易因素和灾害因素。不同因素之间、因素与碳排放之间通过规模效应、结构效应、技术效应、成本节约效应、中断效应、能源强度效应和活动强度效应等相互作用。船舶技术的发展与普及、船舶规划平台的构建、制定科学合理的环境税收政策等对当前海运碳减排提出挑战, 未来需要进一步量化分析海洋运输对地缘政治、自然灾害的具体影响, 重点关注全球供应链的脆弱性和应对策略。

关键词: 海运碳排放, 宏观市场因素, 微观船舶因素, “双碳”目标

Abstract:

This review comprehensively and systematically examines the research on the mechanisms of carbon emissions in maritime transportation at both micro and macro levels, summarizing three major micro factors and three major macro factors, along with seven interrelated effects. Micro factors directly affect ships, including ship technology factors, fleet operation factors, and shipping physical factors. Macro factors affect micro parts through market regulation, and indirectly affect shipping carbon emissions, including international governance factors, trade factors, and disaster factors. Interactions between different factors and between factors and carbon emissions occur through scale effects, structure effects, technology effects, cost-saving effects, interruption effects, energy intensity effects, and activity intensity effects. Challenges in current maritime carbon reduction arise from the development and popularization of ship technology, the establishment of ship planning platforms, and the formulation of scientific and rational environmental tax policies. Future efforts should focus on further quantifying the specific impacts of ocean shipping on geopolitics and natural disasters, with particular attention to the vulnerability and coping strategies of global supply chains.

Key words: shipping carbon emissions, macro market factors, micro ship factors, “dual carbon” goals