北京大学学报自然科学版 ›› 2025, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (2): 343-357.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2025.003

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基于系统动力学的中国电力行业低碳发展路径

马露露1,2, 赵昌文3,4,†, 蒋金荷5,†   

  1. 1. 北京大学国家发展研究院, 北京 100871 2. 中国国际发展知识中心, 北京 100176 3. 中山大学岭南学院, 广州 510275 4. 中山大学国家发展研究院, 广州 510275 5. 中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所, 北京 100732
  • 收稿日期:2024-05-23 修回日期:2024-07-19 出版日期:2025-03-20 发布日期:2025-03-20
  • 通讯作者: 赵昌文, E-mail: cwzhao(at)scu.edu.cn, 蒋金荷, E-mail: jiangjh(at)cass.org.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国国际发展知识中心“碳达峰碳中和的中国战略与全球展望”旗舰研究交流项目和国家社会科学基金(24VRC030)资助

Low Carbon Development Path of China’s Power Sector Based on System Dynamics

MA Lulu1,2, ZHAO Changwen3,4,†, JIANG Jinhe5,†   

  1. 1. National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing 100871 2. Center for International Knowledge on Development, Beijing 100176 3. Lingnan College, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275 4. National Academy of Development, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275 5. Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732
  • Received:2024-05-23 Revised:2024-07-19 Online:2025-03-20 Published:2025-03-20
  • Contact: ZHAO Changwen, E-mail: cwzhao(at)scu.edu.cn, JIANG Jinhe, E-mail: jiangjh(at)cass.org.cn

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摘要：

在中国电力行业未来发展的电力供应安全、深度脱碳及电力经济性三重目标约束下, 基于电力行业复杂性、非线性和深度不确定性等特征, 通过建立系统动力学模型, 分析中国电力行业低碳发展路径。模拟结果表明, 中国应立足以煤为主的基本国情, 通过电力市场、碳交易市场的价格约束合理控制火电发展速度, 有序部署储能设施保障系统稳定性并促进可再生能源合理发展, 加快碳捕集封存应用有效降低电力碳排放, 并通过碳排放配额拍卖收入分配激励碳捕集技术创新发展。

关键词: 电力行业, 低碳发展, 系统动力学, 可再生能源, 电力安全, 电力经济性

Abstract:

In the future, China’s power sector needs to develop under the constraints of the triple objectives of power supply security, decarbonization and power economics. Given the complexity, nonlinearity and uncertainty of the power sector, an analysis of the low-carbon development path of China’s power sector using system dynamics modeling reveals that, based on the coal-dominated national conditions, China should reasonably control the growth rate of thermal power through power and carbon market price constraints, orderly deploy energy storage facilities to ensure the stability of the system and promote the rational development of renewable energy sources, accelerate the application of carbon capture and storage (CCS) to effectively reduce power carbon emissions, and incentivize CCS innovation and development through revenue distribution from carbon emission quota auctions.

Key words: power sector, low carbon development, system dynamics, renewable energy, power security, power economics

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