This paper constructed a dataset of China’s abandoned farmland from 2000 to 2020, and analyzed the evolution characteristics and leading factors of the spatial pattern. The findings are as follows. 1) From 2000 to 2020, the abandoned area and abandonment rate showed a continuous growth trend, with the abandoned area increasing from 255.96×10⁴ hm² to 3113.03×10⁴ hm², and the abandonment rate increasing from 1.29% to 14.08%. The areas with a higher abandonment rate were concentrated in the west side of the Hu Line. 2) There was a significant spatial autocorrelation of farmland abandonment. The “high-high” agglomeration area continued to expand and was concentrated on both sides of the Hu Line, while the “low-low” agglomeration area was mainly distributed in the eastern plain area. Meanwhile, as the abandonment rate continued to rise, a phenomenon of polarization emerged within agricultural regions. 3) In 2020, five factors, including soil type, population density, elevation, rural population proportion and geomorphic type, had strong explanatory power to the spatial differentiation of farmland abandonment. The results of two-factor detection showed nonlinear or double-factor enhancement, and the synergistic driving effect within the natural environmental factor group was stronger. On the basis of natural environmental factors, the explanatory power of socio-economic factors was obviously enhanced.

采用土地利用轨迹变化检测法, 构建2000—2020年中国耕地撂荒的空间信息数据集, 进而分析耕地撂荒的空间格局演变特征及主导因素。结果表明: 1) 2000—2020年, 中国耕地撂荒面积和撂荒率呈现持续增长趋势, 撂荒面积从255.96×10⁴ hm²增长到3113.03×10⁴ hm², 撂荒率从1.29%增长到14.08%, 撂荒率较高的区域集中分布在胡焕庸线西侧; 2) 中国耕地撂荒具有显著的空间自相关性, “高–高”集聚区持续扩大, 集中分布在胡焕庸线两侧区域, “低–低”集聚区主要分布在东部平原区, 在撂荒率持续上升的同时, 农业区内部出现两极分化现象; 3) 2020年, 土壤类型、人口密度、海拔高程、乡村人口占比和地貌类型5个因素对耕地撂荒空间分异产生重要影响, 双因子探测结果均为非线性增强或双因子增强, 自然环境因素组内部的协同效应更强。当自然环境因素存在时, 经济社会因素对耕地撂荒空间分异的解释度显著增强。