In order to quantify the relative contribution of natural factors and human factors to the surface albedo in Guizhou Province and their impacts on its changes, we analyzed the past and future evolution trends of surface albedo based on the MCD43A3 dataset from 2001 to 2022, using the Theil-Sen slope algorithm, Mann-Kendall significance verification and Hurst index method. On this basis, by combining datasets of natural factors and human factors and utilizing partial correlation analysis, residual analysis and ridge regression analysis, the factors influencing changes in land surface albedo were quantified and classified, leading to the following results. 1) From a temporal perspective, the surface albedo showed a fluctuating downward trend from 2001 to 2022, with an average decline rate of 3.699×10⁻⁵ yr⁻¹, and a maximum decline rate of 0.0045 yr⁻¹ from 2001 to 2003. From the spatial perspective, the surface albedo decreased in the northeast and increased in the northwest, and the area of 60.16% of the study area showed a downward trend, and the surface albedo will continue to decline in the future. 2) In response to natural factors, the surface albedo was positively correlated with temperature and leaf area index (LAI), negatively correlated with rainfall and soil moisture. Spatially, LAI was the dominant factor affecting its differentiation; temporally soil moisture. 3) The changes in natural factors and human activities have dual effects on the change of surface albedo, mainly inhibitory, with 60.17% of the study area being co-driven by both. The relative contribution rates are ranked as follows: soil moisture (35.23%) > LAI (23.96%) > land use (18.65%) > temperature (12.03%) > precipitation (10.13%). 

为量化自然因子和人为因子对贵州省地表反照率的相对贡献及对其变化的影响, 基于2001—2022年MCD43A3数据集反演地表反照率, 通过Theil-Sen斜率算法、Mann-Kendall显著性检验和Hurst指数方法, 对地表反照率过去和未来的演变趋势进行分析。在此基础上, 结合自然因子和人为因子数据集, 利用偏相关分析、残差分析和岭回归分析, 对影响地表反照率变化的因素进行量化和分类得到以下结果。1) 在时间视角上, 2001—2022年地表反照率呈波动性下降趋势, 平均下降速率为3.699×10⁻⁵ a⁻¹, 2001—2003年下降速率最大, 为0.0045 a⁻¹; 在空间视角上, 地表反照率呈东北部地区下降、西北部地区上升、研究区60.16%面积的区域下降的趋势, 未来继续以下降为主。2) 在对自然因子的响应方面, 地表反照率与气温及叶面积指数(LAI)正相关, 与降雨量及土壤水分负相关, 空间上LAI是影响其分异的主导因素, 时间上土壤水分是影响其分异的主导因素。3) 自然因子的变化和人类活动对地表反照率的变化产生双重影响, 总体上以抑制为主, 研究区60.17%面积的区域受两者共同驱动。相对贡献率的排序为土壤水分 (35.23%)>LAI (23.96%)>土地利用(18.65%)>气温(12.03%)>降水(10.13%)。