Abstract:

This research takes oasis in the middle reaches of Heihe Basin in northwestern inland as study area, based on land use data, basic geographic information database, DEM, soil database, climatic data and DEMSP/OLS night light database, applies multiple time-series Logistic stepwise regression model to analyze driving factors for landscape types changes during 1986–1995, 1995–2000, 2000–2010, and reveals to what extent that water resource spatial distribution constrains to cropland and construction land. Conclusions are obtained as follows. 1) No general driving factors affect cropland increasing during each time period, while elevation and human activities present general driving factors for cropland decreasing. General driving factors for construction land increasing are elevation, distance and human activities, which have different driving directions based on different time periods. 2) Pumped wells and waterways share similar influential pattern on cropland and construction land changes with influential scope from 1 km to 1.5 km. Waterways constrain more than pumped wells. 3) The elevation influential scope on cropland and construction land is beneath 3500 m, with main constraint from topographic relief effect. The research results reveal the key instructional meanings for optimizing water and land resources spatial distribution, and improving utilization of water resource in oasis area.

Key words: landscape types changes, multiple time-series, water resource, driving forces, Logistic regression model, middle reaches of Heihe Basin

摘要：

以西北内陆黑河中游绿洲为研究区, 基于土地利用数据、基础地理信息数据及 DEM、土壤、气候和DMSP/OLS 灯光数据, 采用多时序 Logistic 逐步回归方法, 分析 1986—1995, 1995—2000 和 2000—2010 年景观类型变化的驱动力, 揭示水资源空间分布对耕地和建设用地变化的约束范围。结果表明: 1) 各时段耕地增加不存在共性驱动因子, 但耕地减少有共性驱动因子(海拔和人类活动); 建设用地增加的共性驱动因子是海拔、距离和人类活动, 但不同时段驱动效应不同; 2) 机井和河渠对耕地和建设用地变化的影响机理类似, 影响范围为 1000~1500 m, 但河渠比机井更具约束力; 3) 海拔对耕地和建设用地的影响范围在3500 m 以下, 其主要限制来自地形起伏的约束。研究结果对优化绿洲水土资源空间配置、提高绿洲水资源利用率具有重要的指导意义。

关键词: 景观变化, 多时序, 水资源, 驱动力, Logistic 回归模型, 黑河中游