Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis ›› 2018, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (3): 673-679.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2017.177

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A System Dynamic Forewarning Model of Watershed Dual Water Resources Carrying Capacity

GAO Wei1, LIU Yong2,†, HE Shuzhuang1   

  1. 1. School of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091
    2. The Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences (MOE), College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871
  • Received:2017-03-15 Revised:2017-04-20 Online:2018-05-20 Published:2018-05-20
  • Contact: LIU Yong, E-mail: yongliu(at)


高伟1, 刘永2,†, 和树庄1   

  1. 1. 云南大学生态学与环境学院, 昆明 650091
    2. 水沙科学教育部重点实验室, 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871
  • 通讯作者: 刘永, E-mail: yongliu(at)
  • 基金资助:


The paper defined the concept of dual water carrying capacity based on water balance of different water quality and addressed a new method of determining forewarning classification according to timing of water shortage. A forewarning model of dual water carrying capacity was established based on system dynamics model. Taking the upstream of Niulanjiang watershed as a case study, the dual water carrying capacity was assessed and predicted by the model. Results show that under business as usual scenario, water resources of high quality will reach blue early warning and that of ordinary quality will reach yellow early warning. To meet the requirement of water diversion in the area, only low rate of socioeconomic development can be sustained in the area while environment protection measures has to be made at medium or above level.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity, system dynamics, forewarning, grey water footprint, Niulanjiang


提出基于不同水质水资源量供需的分质水资源承载力概念, 构建基于缺水发生时间的水资源承载力预警警情确定方法, 采用系统动力学模型构建分质水资源承载力预警模型。以牛栏江流域上游为例, 开展流域分质水资源承载力评估与预警的实证研究。研究结果表明, 在现状发展趋势下, 流域优质水资源达到轻度预警, 一般水资源达到中度预警。为保证调水工程的顺利运行, 牛栏江上游地区仅可承载低水平经济社会发展, 并且需要中等以上的环境保护力度。

关键词: 水资源承载力, 系统动力学, 预警, 灰水足迹, 牛栏江

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