Abstract: Based on historical data on per capita carbon emissions and three socio-economic indicators (industrialization level, urbanization level, and per capita GDP) for the global total and major developed and developing countries, the relationship between carbon emissions and socio-economic development were analyzed. The results show that the process of industrialization and urbanization as well as the accumulation of social wealth, are all inevitably accompanied by large amount of carbon emissions. Therefore, reducing carbon emissions can certainly limit social and economic development. Preliminary analysis suggests that the amount of cumulative per capita emissions corresponding with the peak of industrialization should be at least 40 ton C, though it varies from country to country. For developing countries, considerable carbon emissions quota is required for further industrialization and urbanization as well as improvement of living standards. Therefore, developing countries should fight for their emission rights and financial and technical support from developed countries in the climate negotiations.

Key words: cumulative per capita emissions, industrialization, urbanization, per capita GDP, carbon emissions reduction

摘要： 利用全球及主要发达和发展中国家的化石燃料人均碳排放和工业化、城市化水平以及人均 GDP历史数据, 考察了碳排放与社会经济发展的关系。结果表明, 工业化和城市化进程 以及社会财富的积累, 必然伴随大量碳排放, 因此减排势必会限制社会经济发展。初步分析表明, 工业化程度达到峰值时对应的人均累计碳排放量因国家不同而异, 但这一转折阈值至少为 40 tC。发展中国家正处在工业化和城市化建设、居民生活水平亟待提高的时期, 未来发展需要一定的碳排放空间, 因此在气候谈判中应努力争取自身排放权以及发达国家的资金和技术支持。

关键词: 人均累计碳排放, 工业化, 城市化, 人均GDP, 碳减排