Abstract: Human induced CO₂ emissions have experienced three important periods: 1) 1850-2008, the period since the second industrial revolution; 2) 1950-2008, the rapid economy development period after the Second World War; and 3)1990-2008, the carbon reduction period highlighted by a sign of the “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”. Using data of carbon emissions and population of the world from 1850 to 2008, the authors calculated historical cumulative carbon emissions and the cumulative per capita carbon emissions for the global, developed and developing countries, and analyzed characteristics of carbon emissions for the three periods for China and other major countries. The cumulative global emissions in the past 160 years were 345 PgC (1 PgC = 1015 g of carbon) ; both of the total and per capita carbon emissions in the developed countries were much higher than those in the developing countries for all the three periods. In 1850-2008, the total cumulative emission of the former was 2. 9 times higher than the latter (250 vs. 87 PgC) and the capita value was 11. 2 times higher (257 vs. 23 ton C/ cap) ; in 1950-2008, 2. 3 times higher (193 vs. 85 PgC) and 7. 7 times higher (169 vs. 22 ton C/cap) , respectively; and in 1990-2008, 1.9 times higher (75 vs. 54 PgC) and 5. 3 times higher (58 vs. 11 ton C/ cap). Although the difference in the historical emissions between the developed and developing countries is getting smaller towards the present, both total and per capita emissions of the former are still much higher than the latter, indicating that developed countries should take responsible for the enhanced atmospheric CO2 rising. The cumulative total and per capita emissions of China during the three periods were 31 PgC and 29 ton C/cap, 31 PgC and 28 ton C/cap, and 21 PgC and 16 ton C/cap, respectively. Since the reform and opening up (1980-2008), both the total and per capita emissions of China have experienced rapid growth, with the average annual increase of 0.05 PgC and 0.04 ton C/cap, respectively. These data suggest that China is losing its historical advantage with low per capita emissions, and therefore should take the policies of energy saving and carbon reduction for its sustainable development.

Key words: carbon emissions, cumulative per capita emissions, carbon emissions reduction, change rate analysis

摘要： 人类活动排放CO₂包括3个重要时期, 即1850年第二次工业革命至今, 1950 年战后世界经济迅速发展期至今, 以及以1990 年签署 《联合国气候变化框架公约》为标志的人类关注碳排放时期至今。作者利用 1850?2008 年世界化石燃料CO₂排放量和人口数据, 得到 3 个时期全球主要国家及我国的累计碳排放量与人均累计碳排放量。结果表明:过去近160 年全球历史累计碳排放量为345 PgC( 1 PgC = 10 亿 tC); 发达国家历史累计排放量与人均累计排放量均远远高于发展中国家, 1850?2008 年, 前者是后者的2.9倍( 250 和 87 PgC) 和 11. 2 倍( 257 和 23 tC); 1950?2008 年, 分别是2.3倍( 193 和 85 PgC) 和 7.7 倍( 169 和 22 tC) ; 1990?2008 年, 分别为 1.9倍( 75 和54 PgC) 和 5.3 倍( 58 和 11 tC)。尽管发展中国家与发达国家历史排放量的差距有缩小趋势, 但发达国家的排放量一直远高于发展中国家, 是大气 CO₂浓度升高的主要贡献者。对 1850 年以来中国的碳排放分析表明, 3 个时期历史累计排放量和人均累计排放量分别为31 PgC与 29 tC,31 PgC 与 28 tC,21 PgC 与 16 tC。1980?2008 年我国碳排放总量和人均排放量均呈快速增加趋势, 平均年增量分别为0.05 PgC 和 0.04 tC。这表明, 我国正在失去历史碳排放量较低的优势, 节能减排是我国实现可持续发展战略的必由之路。

关键词: 累计碳排放, 人均累计排放, 减排, 变率分析