Research on Beijing City Future Growth Simulation Based on LRM

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Research on Beijing City Future Growth Simulation Based on LRM

SHEN Tiyan^1,4,5LUO Li′e²LI Xun⁴ZHU Rongfu³YANG Kaizhong^1,4

¹School of Government,Peking University,Beijing,100871; ²School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan,430079; ³Department of Land Science and Technology,China University of Geoscience,Beijing,100083; ⁴China Center for Urban and Regional Development Research,Beijing,100871; ⁵Corresponding Author,E-mail：tyshen@pku.edu.cn

Received:2006-09-28 Online:2007-11-20 Published:2007-11-20

基于LRM的北京城市未来增长模拟研究

沈体雁^1,4,5,罗丽娥²,李迅⁴,朱荣付³,杨开忠^1,4

¹北京大学政府管理学院，北京，100871；²武汉大学遥感信息工程学院，武汉，430079；³中国地质大学土地科学技术系，北京，100083；⁴中国区域经济研究中心，北京，100871；⁵通讯作者，E-mail：tyshen@pku.edu.cn

Abstract

Abstract: According to the development experience of Beijing Metropolitan Area, the authors build and calibrate a set of the multi-variable logistic regression models for the processes based on remote sensing, GIS and geo-computation technologies.Then this model is used to simulate three issues in the fast urbanization processes in Beijing Metropolitan Area: What are the results of stable strategy What will happen if the seventh ring road will be constructed What is the impact of the 2008 Olympic Game Campus The result is that urban simulation should be acted as a very important approach to promote urban planning and decision-making in China.

Key words: urban growth simulation, GIS, multi-variable logistic regression model

摘要： 依据北京城市发展经验,引入多变量逻辑回归模型（Multi-Variable Logistic Regression Model,LRM），以遥感、GIS和地理计算技术为支撑，基于600 m×600 m离散格网，建立北京城市增长模拟模型，对人口稳定增长、修建七环、修建奥运公园等3种北京城市增长情景进行模拟，并对模拟成果进行对比分析。研究结果表明，基于LRM的北京城市未来增长模拟模型应用是城市发展预测研究的一个有效工具，可以为规划部门提供决策参考。

关键词: 城市增长模拟, 地理信息系统, 多变量逻辑回归模型

CLC Number:

F 301.24

SHEN Tiyan,LUO Li'e,LI Xun,ZHU Rongfu,YANG Kaizhong . Research on Beijing City Future Growth Simulation Based on LRM[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis.

沈体雁,罗丽娥,李迅,朱荣付,杨开忠. 基于LRM的北京城市未来增长模拟研究[J]. 北京大学学报（自然科学版）.

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URL: https://xbna.pku.edu.cn/EN/

https://xbna.pku.edu.cn/EN/Y2007/V43/I6/776

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Research on Beijing City Future Growth Simulation Based on LRM

基于LRM的北京城市未来增长模拟研究

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