Abstract: The uncertainty reasoning especially the probability reasoning was imported into the slope geological hazard zonation. Based on the analysis on the uncertain factor method, subjective bayes method, bayes network method and influence diagram method, the methods of their usage in the slope geological hazard zonation were pointed. A new way of the hazard zonation based on the uncertainty reasoning which is a development of the traditional methods was promoted and tested in Xiuyan County of Anshan city in Liaoning Province.

Key words: uncertainty reasoning, probability reasoning, slope geological hazard, zonation

摘要： 通过对不确定性推理方法尤其是概率推理方法的研究，将其引入到斜坡类地质灾害危险性区划之中。在对不确定因子法、主观贝叶斯法、贝叶斯网络法和影响图法等4种不确定性推理方法进行原理分析的基础上，分别给出了其在斜坡类地质灾害危险性区划中的应用思路，并在辽宁省鞍山市岫岩县进行了试验，进而总结形成了一套基于不确定性推理开展斜坡类地质灾害危险性区划的方法体系，实现了对传统区划方法的改进。

关键词: 不确定性推理, 概率推理, 斜坡类地质灾害, 区划