This study focused on Zhangjiakou City, a key water conservation area in the capital region and an ecological barrier in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. By integrating the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model, we quantified land-use changes and the trade-offs/synergies among four ecosystem services (windbreak and sand fixation, food production, soil conservation and water conservation), under different development scenarios from 2000 to 2020 and for the 2030 projection. Based on the trade-off/synergy perspective, we identified the optimal development scenario for Zhangjiakou City. The results indicated that: 1) From 2000 to 2020, the area of forestland in Zhangjiakou City expanded by 40.63%, while cultivated land, grassland, and water bodies declined significantly, intensifying spatial conflicts among ecosystem services, with trade-offs becoming dominant. 2) Four development scenarios, including natural development, cultivated land protection, ecological protection, and comprehensive development, were simulated. The multi-scenario simulations showed that ecosystem services generally exhibited an improving trend across all scenarios. However, conflicts between food production services and ecological regulation services remained prominent. The ecological protection scenario enhanced the synergy between windbreak and sand fixation and water conservation services. The comprehensive development scenario improved the synergy between food production and various ecological regulation services. 3) The comprehensive development scenario, which balanced the coordinated economic development, cultivated land protection and ecological protection, was identified as the optimal scenario for Zhangjiakou City. Future efforts should focus on strengthening comprehensive development planning in Zhangjiakou City to achieve sustainable regional development.

为保障首都重点水源涵养区和京津冀生态安全屏障功能, 以张家口市为研究对象, 集成 PLUS 模型、地理加权回归(GWR)模型, 量化2000—2020年并预测2030年不同发展情景下土地利用变化与防风固沙、粮食生产、土壤保持和水源涵养4类生态系统服务及其权衡–协同关系, 基于权衡–协同视角, 筛选适宜张家口市发展的最优情景, 得到如下结果。1) 2000—2020年, 张家口市林地面积扩张40.63%, 耕地、草地和水域显著减少, 生态系统服务间的空间冲突加剧, 权衡关系成为主要特征。2) 自然发展、耕地保护、生态保护及综合发展4种情景的模拟结果显示, 生态系统服务在4种情景下均呈现优化趋势, 粮食生产服务与生态调节服务间的冲突较为突出, 生态保护情景提升了防风固沙与水源涵养服务间的协同效应, 综合发展情景提高了粮食生产与多种生态调节服务间的协同效应。3) 综合发展情景综合考虑了经济发展、耕地保护和生态保护之间的协同发展关系, 是适宜张家口市发展的最优情景, 未来需优先推进张家口市综合发展规划的实施。