Using land use data from 2010, 2015, and 2020, this study takes Huangping County, Guizhou Province—a national key ecological functional area—as an example. It couples the InVEST and PLUS-Markov models to analyze the characteristics of construction land expansion in Huangping County and its impact on the regional carbon stock. The study then predicts carbon stock changes in 2030 under three development scenarios (ecological protection, natural development, and economic construction), in line with the “14th Five-Year Plan”. The results show that from 2010 to 2020, the area of construction land in Huangping County increased by 1792.89 hm² (a growth rate of 33.65%), with urban, rural and industrial-mining land as the dominate types during the expansion. Construction land conversion caused a net carbon stock loss of 5.93×10⁴ t, primarily due to the conversion of forest land, farmland and grassland to construction land. Overall, the total carbon stock in Huangping County exhibited a growing trend from 2010 to 2020, increasing from 247.56×10⁵ t to 276.03×10⁵ t. Area with significant carbon stock growth, basically unchanged stock, and significant decline accounted for 69.28%, 6.27%, and 24.45% of the total area, respectively. By 2030, the projected carbon stocks under the ecological protection, natural development and economic construction scenarios will be 274.76×10⁵, 267.22×10⁵ and 266.76×10⁵ t, respectively. The study recommends implementing the scenario management mode of “ecological protection is the main focus, and economic construction is the supplement” from 2025 to 2030. 

以国家重点生态功能区贵州省黄平县为例, 使用2010, 2015和2020年土地利用数据, 耦合InVEST模型和PLUS-Markov模型, 在分析黄平县建设用地扩张特征及其对区域碳储量影响的基础上, 依据“十四五”系列发展规划要求, 预测2030年生态保护、自然发展和经济建设3种发展情景下的碳储量变化情况。结果表明, 2010—2020年黄平县建设用地面积增长1792.89 hm², 增长率达33.65%, 其中城镇村及工矿用地在建设用地扩张过程中居主导地位。建设用地变化致使碳储量净损失5.93×10⁴ t, 主要为林地、耕地和草地等转为建设用地过程导致的碳流失量。2010—2020年黄平县的碳储量总体上呈增长趋势, 由247.56×10⁵ t增至276.03×10⁵ t, 碳储量明显增长、基本不变和明显减少趋势的面积占比分别为69.28%, 6.27%和24.45%。2030年黄平县在生态保护、自然发展和经济建设3种情景下的碳储量将分别为274.76×10⁵, 267.22×10⁵和266.76×10⁵ t。建议2025—2030年黄平县实施“生态保护为主, 经济建设为辅”的情景治理模式。