Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis ›› 2024, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (2): 350-356.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2023.095

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Prediction and Path of Carbon Peak in Shannan Region of Tibet Based on Multi Scenario Analysis

ZHANG Yang1,2, ZHANG Jinbo1, JIANG Shaorui4, GUO Huaicheng1, WANG Shuhang3, FU Zhenghui3,†   

  1. 1. College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871 2. Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100041 3. Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012 4. Quzhou Construction Business Service Center, Quzhou 324000
  • Received:2023-08-14 Revised:2024-02-14 Online:2024-03-20 Published:2024-03-20
  • Contact: FU Zhenghui, E-mail: fzh(at)


张扬1,2, 张锦博1, 姜少睿4, 郭怀成1, 王书航3, 付正辉3,†   

  1. 1. 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871 2. 生态环境部环境规划院, 北京 100041 3. 中国环境科学研究院, 北京 100012 4. 衢州市建设事业服务中心, 衢州 324000
  • 通讯作者: 付正辉, E-mail: fzh(at)
  • 基金资助:


This study takes Shannan City in Tibet as the research object, and proposes peak paths and specific policy suggestions based on the prediction results of carbon emission peak values in different scenarios by constructing a GM-ImPACT model. The results show that, the current economic growth rate coupled with strong emission reduction strategies is the optimal path for Shannan City to achieve carbon peak. Shannan City is expected to achieve carbon peak 10 years ahead of schedule in 2024, reducing its total carbon emissions by 20.72%, and its carbon emission intensity will drop by 7.89 percentage points higher than the national level. The proposed model framework could be applied to explore the optimal path of carbon peak for other cities.

Key words: carbon peak, low-carbon development path, GM-ImPACT model, Shannan of Tibet


以西藏山南地区为研究对象, 通过构建GM-ImPACT模型, 根据不同情景下山南市碳排放峰值预测结果, 提出达峰路径和具体的政策建议。研究结果表明, 在当前经济增速的基础上, 配合强减排策略是山南市获得碳达峰的最优路径。预计山南市提前10年于2024 年实现碳达峰, 碳排放总量减少20.72%, 碳排放强度的下降幅度比全国高7.89个百分点。所提模型框架可用于探索其他城市的碳达峰最优路径。

关键词: 碳达峰, 低碳路径, GM-ImPACT模型, 西藏山南