Research of Customer’s Choice Preference for New Energy Vehicles:Based on the Analysis of a Consumer Survey in Shenzhen

doi:10.13209/j.0479-8023.2017.007

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the questionnaires of consumers in Shenzhen, and analysis the data with Nested Logit model, the customer’s choice preference was studied. The result shows that different people have different preference of new energy vehicles: younger people prefer HEV; women and high education group prefer PHEV the elder, low income and low education groups prefer BEV. The results provide a reference for government and enterprise to market segmentation and product improvement, which is essential to improve air quality.

Key words: Nested Logit model, Shenzhen, new energy vehicles, consumers, preference

摘要：

以深圳市购车消费者为研究对象, 在实地问卷调查数据的基础上, 利用嵌套 Logit 模型, 研究具有新能源汽车选择偏好的群体特征。结果表明, 年轻群体的选择偏好是混合动力汽车, 女性或受教育程度较高群体的选择偏好是插电式混合动力汽车, 年长者、低收入或受教育程度较低群体的选择偏好是纯电动汽车。研究结果可为政府决策和企业细分市场, 以及针对性地开发电动汽车产品和改善大气环境质量提供参考。

关键词: 嵌套Logit模型, 深圳, 新能源汽车, 消费群体, 选择偏好

Yongsheng ZHU, Jisong ZHU, Shengwen YU, Guoyu QIU. Research of Customer’s Choice Preference for New Energy Vehicles:Based on the Analysis of a Consumer Survey in Shenzhen[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2017, 53(3): 429-435.

朱勇胜, 朱继松, 余升文, 邱国玉. 新能源汽车的消费者特征研究—— 基于深圳市消费者调查的分析[J]. 北京大学学报自然科学版, 2017, 53(3): 429-435.

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URL: https://xbna.pku.edu.cn/EN/10.13209/j.0479-8023.2017.007

https://xbna.pku.edu.cn/EN/Y2017/V53/I3/429

Figures/Tables 6

References 27

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变量	变量属性	样本数量	比例/%
性别 (Gender)	男	420	77.1
性别 (Gender)	女	125	22.9
年龄 (Age)	18~30岁	374	68.6
年龄 (Age)	31~45岁	171	31.4
家庭月收入 (Income)	10000元以下	300	55.0
	10000~15000元	124	22.8
	15000元以上	121	22.2
受教育程度 (Edu)	高中及以下	139	25.5
受教育程度 (Edu)	大专及以上	406	74.5
每日出行里程 (Range)	40 km以下	340	62.4
	40~60 km	133	24.4
	60 km以上	72	13.2

变量	变量属性	样本数量	比例/%
性别 (Gender)	男	420	77.1
性别 (Gender)	女	125	22.9
年龄 (Age)	18~30岁	374	68.6
年龄 (Age)	31~45岁	171	31.4
家庭月收入 (Income)	10000元以下	300	55.0
	10000~15000元	124	22.8
	15000元以上	121	22.2
受教育程度 (Edu)	高中及以下	139	25.5
受教育程度 (Edu)	大专及以上	406	74.5
每日出行里程 (Range)	40 km以下	340	62.4
	40~60 km	133	24.4
	60 km以上	72	13.2

购车类型	样本数量	比例%
传统型内燃机汽车(ICEVs)	259	47.5
混合动力汽车(HEV)	110	20.2
插电式混合动力汽车(PHEV)	138	25.3
纯电动汽车(BEV)	38	7.0

购车类型	样本数量	比例%
传统型内燃机汽车(ICEVs)	259	47.5
混合动力汽车(HEV)	110	20.2
插电式混合动力汽车(PHEV)	138	25.3
纯电动汽车(BEV)	38	7.0

测度	值	公式
似然比(R)	253	2(logL - logL₀)
R的上限(U)	1511	- 2 log L₀
Aldrich-Nelson	0.32	R/(R+N)
Cragg-Uhler 1	0.37	1- exp(-R/N)
Cragg-Uhler 2	0.40	(1- exp(-R/N)) / (1- exp(-U/N))
Estrella	0.40	1- (1-R/U)⁽^U^/^N⁾
调整Estrella	0.35
McFadden LRI	0.17	R/U
Veall-Zimmermann	0.43	(R(U+N))/(U(R+N))