北京大学学报自然科学版 ›› 2025, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (3): 478-486.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2025.015

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山西省2023年4月降水异常特征及成因分析

王大勇1,2, 王晓琼1, 柯宗建2,†, 张冬峰1, 陈颖1, 闫加海1   

  1. 1. 山西省气候中心, 太原 030006 2. 中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室, 国家气候中心, 北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2024-04-07 修回日期:2024-08-07 出版日期:2025-05-20 发布日期:2025-05-20
  • 通讯作者: 柯宗建, E-mail: kezj(at)cma.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2025-019, FPZJ2023-020)、中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2020-018)和山西省基础研究计划(202303021222389)资助

Characteristics and Possible Causes of Precipitation Anomalies over Shanxi Province in April 2023

WANG Dayong1,2, WANG Xiaoqiong1, KE Zongjian2,†, ZHANG Dongfeng1, CHEN Ying1, YAN Jiahai1   

  1. 1. Shanxi Climate Center, Taiyuan 030006 2. CMA Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081
  • Received:2024-04-07 Revised:2024-08-07 Online:2025-05-20 Published:2025-05-20
  • Contact: KE Zongjian, E-mail: kezj(at)cma.gov.cn

摘要:

利用山西省1981—2023年4月降水数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析大气环流和海温数据, 基于经验正交函数分解、回归分析、合成分析和相关性分析方法, 探讨山西省2023年4月降水异常特征及成因。结果表明, 2023年4月山西省降水量比常年同期增加204.4%, 为 1961年以来历史同期最大降水。此次降水异常与海温外强迫因子导致的大气环流异常密切相关, 后冬(1—2月)北大西洋海温由北至南“− + −”的异常分布, 有利于4月北大西洋至东亚地区500 hPa位势高度场“− + − +”异常波列的加强和维持, 以及低层850 hPa 水汽向山西的辐合, 这一有利的高低空环流配置是山西省2023年4月降水异常偏多的主要原因。

关键词: 降水异常, 大气环流, 海表温度, 山西省

Abstract:

Based on the precipitation data of April over Shanxi Province from 1981 to 2023, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature data, the characteristics and causes of precipitation anomaly over Shanxi Province in April 2023 were summarized and discussed by using empirical orthogonal function decomposition, regression analysis, composite analysis and correlation analysis. The results show that the precipitation over Shanxi Province in April 2023 is 204.4% more than that in the same period of normal years, which is the highest amout in the same period since 1961. The precipitation anomaly is closely related to the atmospheric circulation anomaly caused by the external forcing factor of sea surface temperature. The “− + −” abnormal distribution of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature from north to south in the late winter (January–February) is conducive to the strengthening and maintenance of the “− + − +” abnormal wave train of the 500 hPa geopotential height field from the North Atlantic to East Asia in April, and the convergence of water vapor at 850 hPa to Shanxi. This favorable high-low circulation configuration is the main reason for the abnormal precipitation over Shanxi Province in April 2023. 

Key words: precipitation anomalies, atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature, Shanxi Province