北京大学学报自然科学版 ›› 2019, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (4): 683-691.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2019.036

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民航飞机低空颠簸与地理环境因子相关性研究

刘岳峰†, 张凯, 陈越, 孙鹰   

  1. 北京大学遥感与地理信息系统研究所, 北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2018-06-15 修回日期:2018-09-19 出版日期:2019-07-20 发布日期:2019-07-20
  • 通讯作者: 刘岳峰, E-mail: yuefengliu(at)pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(U1433102)资助

Correlation Study of Low-Altitude Turbulence in Civil Aircraft with Geographical Environmental Factor

LIU Yuefeng†, ZHANG Kai, CHEN Yue, SUN Ying   

  1. Institude of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, Peking University, Beijing 100871
  • Received:2018-06-15 Revised:2018-09-19 Online:2019-07-20 Published:2019-07-20
  • Contact: LIU Yuefeng, E-mail: yuefengliu(at)pku.edu.cn

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摘要：

基于飞行品质监控大数据, 对各机场区域低空颠簸频率进行统计。利用地形及气象观测数据, 研究低空颠簸与环境因子的相关性。结果表明, 飞机低空颠簸与地形起伏度、气温日较差以及风速有显著相关性。利用地理加权回归(GWR)模型进行拟合分析, 发现上述环境因子的影响强度存在空间差异。地形起伏度与风速的影响强度均自东北向西南逐渐增大, 气温日较差的影响强度自东南向西北再向东北逐渐增大。地理加权回归模型的调整R2达到0.512, 说明模型的有效性很好。基于拟合模型对全国范围低空颠簸风险进行估计, 获得颠簸风险分级空间分布图。研究结果对机场选址和飞行安全管理具有参考价值。

关键词: 低空颠簸, 地理环境因子, 地理加权回归, 相关性分析, 飞行品质监控

Abstract:

Based on the flight quality monitoring big data, statistics were made on the frequency of low-altitude airplane turbulence in various airport areas. Besides, using topographic and meteorological data, we analyzed the correlation between low-altitude airplane turbulence and environmental factors. The results indicate a significant correlation between the low-altitude airplane turbulence and relief amplitude, wind speed, and diurnal temperature range. Also, the spatial difference of the effect intensity of these environmental factors is revealed via geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The effect intensity of relief amplitude and wind speed increase from northeast to southwest, while the effect intensity of diurnal temperature range increases from southeast to northwest then to northeast. The adjusted R2 of the model is 0.512, which means that the model is very effective. Based on the GWR model, we estimated the risk of low-altitude airplane turbulence on the national scale, and obtained the classification map of the risk. The research results have reference value for airport location and flight safety management.

Key words: low-altitude turbulence, geographical environmental factor, geographically weighted regression; correlation analysis, flight quality monitoring

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