北京大学学报自然科学版 ›› 2019, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (4): 727-737.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2019.042

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基于EIO-LCA模型的中国1992—2012年碳排放结构特征研究

许红周, 计军平†   

  1. 北京大学深圳研究生院环境与能源学院, 城市人居环境科学与技术重点实验室, 深圳 518055
  • 收稿日期:2018-05-24 修回日期:2018-06-10 出版日期:2019-07-20 发布日期:2019-07-20
  • 通讯作者: 计军平, E-mail: jackyji(at)pku.edu.cn

Carbon Emissions by Chinese Economy in 1992–2012: An Assessment Based on EIO-LCA Model

XU Hongzhou, JI Junping†   

  1. Key Laboratory for Urban Habitat Environmental Science and Technology, School of Environment and Energy, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055
  • Received:2018-05-24 Revised:2018-06-10 Online:2019-07-20 Published:2019-07-20
  • Contact: JI Junping, E-mail: jackyji(at)pku.edu.cn

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摘要：

构建非竞争型投入产出表, 计算1992—2012年中国碳排放数据, 利用EIO-LCA方法对排放结构特征进行分析。结果表明: 我国碳排放总体上呈快速上升趋势。从部门结构来看, 隐含排放量最多的为建筑业。从类型结构来看, 1992—2012年我国碳排放增长的主要原因在于投资活动、出口及城镇居民消费规模的大幅增长。投资活动占最终需求总增量的55.83%, 其隐含排放主要在部门28 (建筑业)。出口占最终需求总增量的24.38%, 其隐含排放主要集中在制造业, 我国出口隐含碳排放总体上较高。城镇居民消费占最终需求总增量的14.99%, 其隐含排放主要集中在部门 25 (电力、热力的生产和供应业)。1992—2012年间, 部门28, 17 (通用、专用设备制造业)和35(其他服务业)的增幅最明显, 三者共占总增量的60.45%; 部门22 (其他制造业), 2 (煤炭开采和洗选业), 5 (非金属矿采选业), 3 (石油和天然气开采业)和8 (纺织业)的碳排放保持下降趋势。

关键词: 环境投入产出分析, 碳排放, 直接排放, 隐含排放

Abstract:

This paper constructs a non-competition input-output table, calculates the carbon emission data in China from 1992 to 2012, and analyzes the structural characteristics of its emissions using the EIO-LCA method. The results show that, in general, China’s carbon emission shows a fast rising trend. From the view of department structure, in 1992–2012, the main reason for the growth of carbon emissions in China was the large increase in investment activities, exports and the consumption of urban residents. Investment activities accounted for 55.83% of the total increment of the final demand, and the embodied emissions were mainly in the sector 28 (Construction). Exports accounted for 24.38% of the total final demand. The embodied emissions were mainly concentrated in the manufacturing industry. In general, China’s exports contain higher carbon emissions. The consumption of urban residents accounted for 14.99% of the total increment of the final demand. The embodied emissions were mainly concentrated in sector 25 (Production and distribution of electric power and heat power). In 1992–2012, the growth rate of sector 28, 17 (Manufacture of general and special purpose machinery) and 35 (Other services) was the most obvious, and the three accounted for 60.45% of the total increment. In addition, the carbon emissions of sector 22 (Other manufacturing), 2 (Mining and washing of coal), 5 (Mining and processing of nonmetal ores), 3 (Extraction of petroleum and natural gas) and 8 (Manufacture of textiles) maintained a downward trend.

Key words: EIO-LCA, carbon emissions, direct emission, embodied emission

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