关键词: 土地利用变化模拟, CLUE-S 模型, 京津冀城市群

Abstract:

For the land use demands of Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration cooperative development strategies, four kinds of land use policies, i.e. status quo continuation, food security, nature protection and urban expansion were made. A modified Cobb-Douglas utility function was developed to quantify the influence of different policies on various land use demands, and a CLUE-S model was built to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution of Jing-Jin-Ji land use under different policies. Results show that, compared with year 2010, great changes occur on land use areas and patterns in the year 2020 under different policies. “Status quo continuation” is characterized by the continuous expansion of urban groups, increasing the construction land by 2280 km². “Food Security” significantly increases the arable land by 3611.4 km², while reducing the ecological land including forest and grassland. “Nature protection” greatly reduces the area of arable land by 3082.13 km², while increasing forest, grassland and water area by 3726.4 km². “Urban expansion” substantially increases the construction land by 3375 km², while decreasing other types of land use. Spatially, every land use policy has its significant regional characteristics in land use conversion. The increase of construction land always comes together with the decrease of arable land, which tends to occur in the existing urban surroundings. The increase of ecological land is more often seen in Bashang plateau, Yanshan Mountains as well as Taihang Mountains. This study has great reference value in designing optimal land use policies, especially in the gradual implementation stage of the Jing-Jin-Ji collaborative development strategies.

Key words: land use changes simulation, CLUE-S model, Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration