我国东中部地区小时降雨集聚时空特征

doi:10.13209/j.0479-8023.2016.125

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于 1980—2012 年 1457 个站点小时降雨数据, 研究我国中东部地区 5—9 月降雨集聚指数(PCI)的时空分布特征, 探索 PCI 与不同降雨强度和不同持续时间小时降雨变量之间的关系, 揭示影响PCI变化的降雨特征变量。研究结果表明: 我国中东部地区 PCI 在 0.56~0.78 之间, 并具有明显的区域差异。东南沿海 PCI高于西北内陆, 在东北、华北及四川盆地形成 3 个高值中心, 并在海拔差异较大的地区发生突变。线性趋势分析表明, 我国中东部地区近 33 年 PCI 呈上升趋势。PCI 与极端降雨之间呈显著正相关, 且随着降雨量的减少, 相关性显著增强。

关键词: 小时降雨, 降雨集聚指数(PCI), 时空特征, 极端降雨

Abstract:

Hourly precipitation data of 1457 stations during 1980?2012 were used to investigate the spatial-temporal patterns of PCI (precipitation concentration index) from May to September over eastern and central China. The relationships between PCI and other precipitation variables based on different precipitation intensities or different precipitation durations were also analyzed to reveal the variables highly correlated with PCI. The result indicated that the values of PCI over eastern and central China ranged from 0.56 to 0.78 with evident regional variations. The values of PCI in southeastern China were higher than the values in northwestern China. There were three concentrations of high PCI value centers, i.e., Northeast China, North China, and Sichuan Basin. The variations of PCI were found in areas with great altitude difference. The linear trend analysis showed an increasing trend of PCI values over eastern and central China over the past 33 years. In addition, significantly positive correlation relationship between PCI and extreme precipitation was detected, and the correlation coefficient of the two variables increased with the decrease of the total precipitation amount.

Key words: hourly precipitation, PCI (precipitation concentration index), spatial-temporal patterns, extreme precipitation

中图分类号:

P426
P468

徐志搏, 王钧, 曾辉. 我国东中部地区小时降雨集聚时空特征[J]. 北京大学学报自然科学版, 2017, 53(4): 597-606.

Zhibo XU, Jun WANG, Hui ZENG. Spatial-Temporal Patterns of Hourly Precipitation Concentration
over Eastern and Central China[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2017, 53(4): 597-606.

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链接本文: https://xbna.pku.edu.cn/CN/10.13209/j.0479-8023.2016.125

https://xbna.pku.edu.cn/CN/Y2017/V53/I4/597

图/表 9

图1 气象观测站点分布

Fig. 1 Distribution of meteorological observation stations

图2 呼和浩特站5—9月降雨集聚曲线

Fig. 2 Concentration curve of precipitation from May to September at Hohhot Station

表1 降雨特征变量

Table 1 Variables of precipitation

分类方式	变量	变量定义
降雨强度	PA0	总累积降雨量(mm)
	PA5	小时降雨强度超过5 mm的累积降雨量(mm)
	PA10	小时降雨强度超过10 mm的累积降雨量(mm)
	PF0	总累积降雨时长(h)
	PF5	小时降雨强度超过5 mm的累积降雨时长(h)
	PF10	小时降雨强度超过10 mm的累积降雨时长(h)
降雨历时	PA3h	持续降雨时间不超过3 h降雨事件累积降雨量(mm)
	PA12h	持续降雨时间不少于12 h降雨事件累积降雨量(mm)
	PF3h	持续降雨时间不超过3 h降雨事件累积降雨时长(h)
	PF12h	持续降雨时间不少于12 h降雨事件累积降雨时长(h)
	PE3h	持续降雨时间不超过3 h的累积降雨事件数
	PE12h	持续降雨时间不少于12 h的累积降雨事件数

图3 我国东中部地区站点小时降雨PCI (a)及PCI等值线(b)

Fig. 3 PCI in each station (a) and the contour of PCI (b) over eastern and central China

图4 我国东中部地区站点前 25%降雨小时累积降雨量百分比与PCI的关系(a)和前 25%降雨小时累积降雨量百分比的空间分布(b)

Fig. 4 Relationship between the percentage of precipitation contributed by 25% of the rainiest hours and PCI (a) and spatial distribution of the percentage of precipitation contributed by 25% of the rainiest hours (b) over eastern and central China

图5 我国东中部地区PCI变化趋势(a)及空间分布(b) (圆圈站点p ≤ 0.05)

Fig. 5 Trend of annual PCI (a) and its spatial distribution (b) over eastern and central China^(note that p ≤ 0.05 in circle-marked stations)

表2 我国中东部地区PCI与降雨特征变量的相关关系

Table 2 Relationship between PCI and variables of preci-pitation over Eastern and Central China

不同降雨强度		不同降雨历时
变量	R	变量	R
PA0	0.17	PA3h	0.34
PA5	0.42^*	PE3h	0.17
PA10	0.51^**	PF3h	0.18
PF0	-0.20	PA12h	-0.21
PF5	0.30	PE12h	-0.50^**
PF10	0.47^**	PF12h	-0.54^**

图6 我国东中部地区(1980—2012年)站点的R[PCI, X] ^ R[PCI, X]≥0.34代表置信度超过95% (X代表不同的降雨特征变量); N(+)/N(-)代表PCI与其他变量的年际变化显著正/负相关(p≤0.05)的站点数量

Fig. 6 R[PCI, X] of stations over eastern and central China (1980?2012)

图7 不同年均降雨量下R[PCI, X]的变化

Fig. 7 Changes of the four R[PCI, X] along with annual precipitation

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