中国发电行业生命周期温室气体减排潜力及成本分析

北京大学学报（自然科学版）

中国发电行业生命周期温室气体减排潜力及成本分析

廖夏伟¹,谭清良²,张雯¹,马晓明^1,3,计军平^1,3

1. 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871; 2. 深圳市人居环境委员会, 深圳 518034; 3. 北京大学深圳研究生院环境与能源学院, 城市人居环境科学与技术重点实验室, 深圳 518055;

收稿日期:2012-07-30 出版日期:2013-09-20 发布日期:2013-09-20

Analysis of Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Potential and Cost for China’s Power Generation Sector

LIAO Xiawei¹, TAN Qingliang², ZHANG Wen¹, MA Xiaoming^1,3, JI Junping^1,3

1. College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871; 2. Human Settlements and Environment Commission of Shenzhen Municipality, Shenzhen 518034; 3. Key Laboratory for Urban Habitat Environmental Science and Technology, School of Environment and Energy, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055;

Received:2012-07-30 Online:2013-09-20 Published:2013-09-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于相关规划目标, 分析2020年中国发电行业8类减排发电技术的生命周期温室气体减排潜力、减排成本和单位减排成本。结果表明: 1) 发电行业共能产生2099.0~2070.3 MtCO_2e的减排量, 其中水电和核电的减排潜力最大, 两者占总潜力的62.90%~63.34%; 2) 发电行业总减排成本为3307.6亿元, 其中水电的发电成本最低, 为-783.0亿元, 生物质发电的成本最高, 为1687.5亿元; 3) 发电行业的平均单位减排成本为157.6~159.8元/tCO_2e, 其中水电和核电的单位减排成本最低, 分别为-104.3~-104.8元/tCO_2e和13.2~13.3元/tCO_2e, 天然气发电的最高, 为958.8~1598.0元/tCO_2e。总体而言, 水电和核电的单位减排成本较低且减排潜力大, 未来应重点发展这两种发电技术。

关键词: 生命周期评价, 温室气体减排潜力, 温室气体减排成本曲线, 发电行业

Abstract: Based on the relevant planning objectives, life-cycle emission reduction capacities and costs of eight categories of emission reduction technology of China’s power sector are analyzed. The results indicate that the total emission reduction capacity amounts to 2099.0-2070.3 MtCO_2e. The emission reductions generated by hydropower and nuclear power are the biggest, accounting for 62.90% to 63.34% together. The total cost is projected to be 330.76 billion RMB. The lowest cost, by hydropower, is -783.0 billion RMB, while the highest, by biomass power, is 168.75 billion RMB. The average unit cost of reducing emissions is between 157.6 to 159.8 RMB/tCO_2e. Hydropower and nuclear power have the lowest unit abatement costs, -104.3- -104.8 RMB/tCO_2e and 13.2-13.3 RMB/tCO_2e respectively, while natural gas power has the highest, 958.8?1598.0 RMB/tCO_2e. Overall, the hydropower and nuclear power generate relatively low unit abatement costs and big emission reduction capacities. Thus, China should focus on the development of these two types of new energy in the future.

Key words: life-cycle assessment, greenhouse gas emission reduction potential, greenhouse gas emission reduction cost curve, power generation sector

中图分类号:

X196

廖夏伟,谭清良,张雯,马晓明,计军平. 中国发电行业生命周期温室气体减排潜力及成本分析[J]. 北京大学学报（自然科学版）.

LIAO Xiawei,TAN Qingliang,ZHANG Wen,MA Xiaoming,JI Junping. Analysis of Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Potential and Cost for China’s Power Generation Sector[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis.

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https://xbna.pku.edu.cn/CN/Y2013/V49/I5/885