关键词: 滇池流域, 社会经济, 优化模型, 情景分析

Abstract: Based on the theory of Environmental Carrying Capacity and the systematic analysis of social economy and environment in Dianchi Watershed, the authors establish Dianchi watershed social economy and environment system optimization model (DSEESOM), taking population and economy as the maximum objective function while natural resources and environmental capacity as constraints. Through DSEESOM, the high, median and low planning schemes under two scenarios considering whether take water transfer project of Niulan River or not, are compared and evaluated, which indicate that the carrying capacity of population and economy will be improved after water transfer; meanwhile the differences of the carrying capacity under median and low planning scheme are minor. Therefore, the result explains the phenomenon from the perspective of sensitivity range, and then the median planning scheme is taken as the best scheme for the integrated management of Dianchi watershed.

Key words: Dianchi watershed, social economy, optimization model, scenario analysis