关键词: 信息扩散模型, 自然灾害, 综合风险评估, 情景分析

Abstract: Comparing with other traditional approaches like the probability statistics method and the multi-criteria decision-making method, this paper discusses the applicability and relative merits of the Information Diffusion Model (IDM). It reveals that the IDM is a straightforward approach with a definite result requiring fewer data, which meets the requirement of disaster risk assessment and has significant value for decision. Therefore, the IDM is wildly used in the natural disaster risk assessment, especially in the case of limited samples or unknown probability distributions. However, the IDM is limited in describing the comprehensive aspect of the disaster risk, and some detailed rules should be clarified further when putting the model into practice. In order to improve the IDM method, extend the range of IDM’s applicability, and provide an approach for comprehensive disaster risk assessment, this paper puts forward a scenario-based IDM by combining the scenario analysis method with the traditional IDM method.

Key words: information diffusion model, natural disasters, comprehensive risk assessment, scenario analysis