京津地区一次强对流天气的初生预警技术研究

北京大学学报（自然科学版）

京津地区一次强对流天气的初生预警技术研究

刘京华¹,王彬²,韩雷^1,3,王洪庆³

1. 中国海洋大学信息科学与工程学院, 青岛 266100; 2. 国家气象信息中心, 北京 100081; 3. 北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系, 北京 100871;

收稿日期:2011-01-13 出版日期:2012-01-20 发布日期:2012-01-20

Forecasting Convective Initiation of a Convective Weather Event in Beijing-Tianjin Region

LIU Jinghua¹, WANG Bin², HAN Lei^1,3, WANG Hongqing³

1. School of Information Science and Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100; 2. National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing 100081; 3. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871;

Received:2011-01-13 Online:2012-01-20 Published:2012-01-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于日本MTSAT卫星数据, 在Mecikalski等提出的8个指标计分统计方法的基础上, 对京津地区的一次强对流天气过程的初生(CI)进行预警试验, 并根据试验结果修改了部分指标的阈值。试验表明, 经过阈值的适当修改, 该方法可以有效地对京津地区的强对流初生提前30分钟进行预警。另外, 使用主成分分析(PCA)方法, 验证了8个指标中的每一个指标对于预警CI都有重要的作用。

关键词: 强对流天气, 对流初生, 主成份分析(PCA)

Abstract: Using a scoring method presented by Mecikalski et al, which uses eight indicators to forecast convective initiation (CI), a convective weather event in Beijing-Tianjin region was analyzed in the experiment based on the MTSAT satellite data. The experiment results show that after necessary modifications of the indicator thresholds, the above method is feasible to forecast CI ~30 min in advance in Beijing-Tianjin region. The principle component analysis (PCA) method also verifies that every indicator among the eight indicators plays an important role in forecasting CI.

Key words: convective weather, convective initiation (CI), principle component analysis (PCA)

中图分类号:

P445

刘京华,王彬,韩雷,王洪庆. 京津地区一次强对流天气的初生预警技术研究[J]. 北京大学学报（自然科学版）.

LIU Jinghua,WANG Bin,HAN Lei,WANG Hongqing. Forecasting Convective Initiation of a Convective Weather Event in Beijing-Tianjin Region[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis.

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