关键词: 气候变化, 粮食供需平衡风险, 中国

Abstract: The term “risk” here mainly refers to the possible impacts of future climate change on food crops supply-demand balance. Based on the simulated results of food crops production under scenario B2 of climate change in RCMCA (regional crop model for Chinese agriculture), this study developed the food crops consumption scenario and set the criteria on food crops risks under climate change. It also analyzed the future variation in food crops supply and demand to determine the effect of climate change on food crops security in the short, medium and long terms at the county scale with the support of GIS. The results show that the climate change will hinder the food crops supply in general. With higher living standard, the gap between food crops supply and demand will be enlarged in the future, resulting in the increase of risk. The highest may occur in the medium term, the lowest in the near future, and the medium in the far future. Particularly in the medium term, 66.99% of the counties in China will face risks. Among them, 29.5%, occupying the largest area, will be with high and moderate risks; in the short-term, however, the situation will be easier, i.e. 25.54% counties in moderate (14.82%) and high risks (10.72%). Moreover, counties with high risks are distributed mainly in Huang-Huai-Hai Region, Loess Plateau, Southwest China, and Eastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Region. The areas with lower risks are in Northeast Region, Gansu Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and areas along the Great Wall.

Key words: climate change, risk in food crops supply-demand balance, China