关键词: 青藏高原, 均生函数, 最优子集回归, 人工神经网络

Abstract: The authors examine meteorological observation data over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the passed 50 years. The Plateau was divided into five temperature and precipitation subareas using the method of self-organizing feature maps. For each subarea, mean generating function-optimal subset regression was applied to predict climatic variations in the future 5 years. The results indicate that there is no obvious trend in precipitation for the TP as a whole, except southeastern Qinghai and eastern Tibet, where a significant decreasing trend is found, and annual fluctuations of precipitation are violent. However, temperature of the TP exhibits an increasing tendency, with the exception of the southeastern part.

Key words: Tibetan Plateau, mean generating function, optimal subset regression, SOFM