关键词: 泥石流, 岫岩县, 确定因子法, 逻辑回归模型, 危险性区划

Abstract: The authors take a research on hazard zonation of debris flows based on GIS in Xiuyan County of Anshan City, Liaoning Province. Due to the uncertainty of the research on debris flows, the authors adopt the approach of certainty factors to research hazard zonation for debris flows. The graphs of hazard distribution and correlative affecting factors are obtained by digitizing and spatial analyzing the investigation data of geologic hazard of Xiuyan County. Then the unique-condition units are derived through overlying the graphs. CF values from each group of data are calculated and then they are used in logistic regression to set up the hazard evaluation model of debris flows in Xiuyan County. The graph of the hazard zonation of debris flows is obtained by using this model. This method proves to show the characters of the hazard of debris flows well by testing the hazard point data.

Key words: debris flow, Xiuyan County, certainty factors, logistic regression model, hazard zonation