关键词: 地震预报, 前兆信息, 微波遥感, 波束开关法, 孕震区, 物信论

Abstract: Through analysis of several strong earthquakes in Haicheng, Tangshan and Wenchuan, the author points out that the uncertainty of earthquake forcast lies in the complexity of precursors which are difficult to detect and identify. Single small earthquake precursor does not provide universal forecast meaning. However, comprehensive analysis on a variety of precursors may be of great significance for the short-term earthquake forecast. Further analysis demonstrates, the selection of observation instruments can be more important. Compared with common ground observation for obtaining estimative information of earthquake precursors, the space remote sensing observation for obtaining collateral information of the seismogenic zone, and microwave remote sensing observation in particular, provides many advantages, including big visual field, quick prescription , strong synchronismand working in all weather. Under the condition of using bean switching method, the microwave remote sensing observation can discover the change of microwave radiation fromthe seismogenic zone with very high sensitivity. Such observation may provide more important meaning for short-term earthquake forecast. Finally, based on the matter information theory, the feasibility and rationality of microwave remote sensing observation were discussed.

Key words: earthquake forecast, foreboding information, microwaveremote sensing, beamswitching method, seismogenic zone, matter infor mation theory