洪水灾害对区域可持续发展的长期影响分析

北京大学学报（自然科学版）

洪水灾害对区域可持续发展的长期影响分析

孙莉英,毛小苓,黄铮,刘永伟

北京大学环境工程系, 水沙科学教育部重点实验室, 北京100871;

收稿日期:2008-12-26 出版日期:2009-09-20 发布日期:2009-09-20

Analysis of Long-Term Flood Impact on Sustainability

SUN Liying, MAO Xiaoling, HUANG Zheng, LIU Yongwei

Department of Environmental Engineering, Peking University, Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100871;

Received:2008-12-26 Online:2009-09-20 Published:2009-09-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 提出洪水灾害对可持续发展的长期影响指数(LFIS)。LFIS主要考虑洪水灾害对社会-经济-环境复合系统多方面多层次的影响, 是对现行的以洪灾经济损失评价及简单的经济损失弥补为目的的洪灾风险评价理念的拓展与补充。采用快速评估方法, 以县城区划为评估单元, 进行LFIS 的评价分级。根据LFIS的评价结果, 将评估单元划分为高、较高、中等、较低和低5类, 并从区域、省份和城市的角度分别对LFIS的分异规律进行讨论。研究结果可更好地服务于可持续背景下更为广泛的综合防洪减灾规划与决策。

关键词: 洪水灾害, 可持续发展指数, 快速评估, 长期影响

Abstract: A newindex of long-termflood impact on sustainability (LFIS) was proposed, considering the multiple impact of flood on the complex social-economic-environmental system. This index extended the current economic loss basedflood risk analysis into a more comprehensive perspective. Rapid assessment approach was applied for the evaluation and ranking of LFIS using 2359 counties/cities of mainland China as mapping units. The mainland China was zonedinto five kinds of regions, classified in terms of different grades of LFIS, i.e. very high, high, medium, low and very low. The spatial characteristics of LFIS were discussed for regional, provincial and urban levels. The results are helpful for the decision-making of integrated sustainable flood prevention, mitigation and recovery.

Key words: flood hazard, sustainability, rapid assessment, long-termimpact

中图分类号:

P343

孙莉英,毛小苓,黄铮,刘永伟. 洪水灾害对区域可持续发展的长期影响分析[J]. 北京大学学报（自然科学版）.

SUN Liying,MAO Xiaoling,HUANG Zheng,LIU Yongwei. Analysis of Long-Term Flood Impact on Sustainability[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis.

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链接本文: https://xbna.pku.edu.cn/CN/

https://xbna.pku.edu.cn/CN/Y2009/V45/I5/875

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