关键词: 潜在蒸散量, 气候风险指数, 生态风险评价

Abstract: Climate risk index and ecological risk index over the past 47 years (1961-2007) in the medial area of the farming-pastoral zigzag zone in Northern China were constructed and analyzed to find its local response to global climate change. The results show that: 1) during 1961 to 2007, the integrative trend of climate risk index was increasing, which meant an increasing climate risk. The index increased from the southeast to the northwest. Abagaqi, which located in Inner Mongolia Autonomous, showed an extremely high climaterisk. Hunshandake sandy land and Korqin sandy land andtheir surrounding areas also faced high risk, most probably got worse. 2) The spatial distribution of ecological risk index was in agreement of latitude inthis local scale, which marked a increasing risk at higher northern latitude. Ecological risk index also changed depending on longitude. It turned out that the risk got extremely worse in the west. High risk and extremely high risk areas centrally distributed in Hunshandake sandy land partly in the Southern Abagaqi and Korqin sandy land partly in the eastern Wengniuteqi. 3) The contrast between actual risk distribution and condition changed risk distribution obviously suggested that actually high risk areas were more sensitive to the change of grassland coverage density and climate change.

Key words: potential evapotranspiration, climate risk index, ecological risk assessment