北京大学学报(自然科学版)

分站客观降水预报试验

邵明轩1,2, 吴庆丽1, 刘凤辉3, 魏建明3, 窦以文3, 徐芳4   

  1. 1北京大学物理学院大气科学系,暴雨监测和预测国家重点实验室,北京,100871;2北京城市气象研究所,北京,100089;3北京市气象局,北京,100089;4国家知识产权局,中国专利信息中心,北京,100088
  • 收稿日期:2002-12-17 出版日期:2004-01-20 发布日期:2004-01-20

An Objective Forecast Experiment in Precipitation at Stations

SHAO Mingxuan1, 2, WU Qingli1, LIU Fenghui3, WEI Jianming3, DOU Yiwen3, XU Fang4   

  1. 1State Key Lab for Severe Storm Research, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Physical School, Peking University, Beijing, 100871; 2Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing, 100089; 3Beijing Meteorological Bureau, Beijing, 100089; 4China Patent Information Center, State Intellectual Property Office, Beijing, 100088
  • Received:2002-12-17 Online:2004-01-20 Published:2004-01-20

摘要: 将逐时段定点降水非连续量的预报问题转化为对一个连续的降水可能函数的预报问题。降水可能函数为一由实况值确定的函数。发展了一种新的非线性多因子动态组合方法,通过对降水可能函数的预报,作客观分站降水预报。1998年在北京地区15站进行了为期半年的预报试验,当天夜间的降水预报平均CSI得分为0.40,第二天白天平均CSI得分为0.40。

关键词: 降水可能函数, 非线性多因子, 动态方程, 分站降水预报

Abstract: The forecast of precipitation at station is usually as the forecast of a discontinuous variable. In this paper, the forecast is transformed into a forecast of a continuous variable—possibility function of precipitation (PFP). PFP is determined by observations. And a new method, dynamic combination equation of nonlinear multi-factors (DCENMF), has been developed to forecast precipitation at station by forecasting PFP. Based on this approach, experimental objective forecasts of precipitation at stations were made in Beijing district from July to December 1998. Precipitation forecasts for 15 stations are assessed by the critical success index (CSI). The mean CSI is 0.40 for the night, and 0.33 for the next day.

Key words: possibility function of precipitation, nonlinear multi-factors, dynamic combination equation, forecasting precipitation at station

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