关键词: 大熊猫, 随机性模型, 种群存活力分析, 秦岭

Abstract: Based on years collected population inform ation of Giant Panda in Qinling Mountains, a mechanical stochastic model was built to simulate the dynamic of wild panda population in Qinling, as well as this populations viability analysis. The model results shows that the panda population in Qinling has positive growth potential. The minimum viable population size, which defined in this article is the population last for 200 years with no more than 5% extinct possibilities, is 28～30 individuals. The extinct possibility will inc rease because of population demographic stochastic factors, if the initial popula tion size is lower than 28～30. With the influence of density dependant factors, the minimum population size is 50～60, and the density independent factor's affect should not higher than 1% per year. According to the current population size of Qinling, the current panda population's extinct possibility caused by demographic stochastic is low, and it is able to sustain for a long time if its environment could be kept as current or get better.

Key words: giant panda, stochastic model, population viability analysis, Qinling