In order to explore the impact of social, economic and industrial energy factors on air pollution emissions of the industrial sector in Hebei Province, the LMDI model was adopted to decompose the air pollutant emissions of the industrial sector in Hebei Province from 2013 to 2020. Four economic and industrial energy consumption scenarios were set according to the current economic development and pollutant emission trend. The contributions of future socio-economic and industrial energy effects to pollutant emission in Hebei Province by 2035 were predicted under these scenarios. The results show that the industrial structure and energy structure of Hebei Province have been thoroughly adjusted in recent years, and the dependence of economic development on industry has been reduced. The reduction of industrial sector capacity and the elimination of outdated production capacity have achieved remarkable results. Clean use of energy is still an effective means of industrial green and clean transformation. In addition, the current energy structure of the industrial sector still needs to be further adjusted, and the application of new energy and clean energy in the industrial sector is the main adjustment direction in future. The prediction results indicate that the slowdown of gross regional domestic product growth will promote the emission reduction of air pollutants in the industrial sector, and the contribution of the adjustment of industrial and energy structure to the emission reduction of air pollutants in the industrial sector will gradually increase. 

为了探究社会经济及产业能源要素对河北省工业部门大气污染排放的影响, 采用LMDI模型对2013—2020年河北省工业部门大气污染物排放量进行分解, 并根据当前经济发展及污染物排放趋势, 设置4种经济、工业结构及能源消耗情景, 在不同情景下预测到 2035年社会经济及产业能源效应对河北省污染物减排贡献率的影响。研究结果表明, 随着近年来河北省产业结构及能源结构的深入调整, 经济发展对工业的依赖度降低; 工业部门产能削减以及淘汰落后产能等工作对大气污染物减排效果显著, 能源的清洁利用仍是工业绿色清洁转型的有效手段; 此外, 当前工业部门能源结构仍有进一步调整的需求, 新能源及清洁能源在工业部门的应用是未来主要调整方向。预测结果表明, 地区生产总值增长的放缓对工业部门大气污染物减排有促进作用, 产业与能源结构的调整对工业部门大气污染物的减排贡献率逐渐增加。