Based on Miami model of natural ecosystem productivity, a high-precision per capita crop yield distribution map is drawn, global agricultural development potential is calculated on the condition of highefficiently use of water resources, and scenario analysis method is applied to predict the future population supporting capacity of the earth. The potential yield of crops in the world’s wasteland suitable for agriculture is 6039 million tons of dry material of economic yield. If it is added up with the current crop yield and yield increase potential of existing cultivated land, and crop production potential of reclaiming wasteland by water diversion across river basins, the maximum sustainable output capacity of crops in the world is 16015million tons, which is 3.09 times of the current global crop production. In the case of medium input and medium consumption, the global can support 12.11 billion populations in 2100, which is 1.60 times of the current global total population. The paper concludes that, in order to ensure food security, China’s future agricultural development should be concentrated on increasing agricultural input, promoting advanced agricultural production technology, and efficiently exploring and utilizing water resources and arable land resources. More over international agricultural cooperation and exchanges should be strengthened, and the spread of advanced agricultural production technologies in developing countries should be accelerated.

基于迈阿密自然生态系统生产力模型, 绘制高精度的人均农作物产量分布图; 计算水资源高效利用条件下全球宜农荒地的农作物生产潜力; 对不同农业投入水平和食物消费水平组合下的地球人口承载力进行超远期情景分析。按经济产量干重计量, 通过计算得出全球宜农荒地的农作物生产潜力为60.39 亿 t, 加上现有耕地的农作物产量和增产潜力以及跨流域调水垦荒的农作物生产潜力, 全球最大可持续农作物产量为160.15 亿 t, 是目前全球农作物产量的3.09倍; 在中投入和中消费情景下, 2100年全球可承载121.1亿人口, 是当前全球总人口的1.60倍。为保障粮食安全, 我国农业未来的发展方向应当是增加农业投入, 提升农业生产技术水平, 高效地开发利用水资源和土地资源, 同时加强国际农业合作交流, 加快先进农业生产技术在发展中国家的推广。